Chargers vs 49ers – Week 10 2022
LAC
SF
LAC
AWAY
16@22
SF BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 10
2022 SEASON
Levi's Stadium · Santa Clara, CA
SF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 16, San Francisco 49ers 22.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Chargers, 3 49ers.
Model confidence: LAC 50%Our line: LAC +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
LAC +8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LAC +0.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LAC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.001Net EPA / play+0.211
+0.007 (13)Offense EPA / play+0.085 (4)
+0.006 (19)Defense EPA / play-0.126 (1)
44.1% (18)Offense success %46.2% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
LAC C-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LAC but SF won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 6.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
SF
Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
SF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs SF
Our model takes Los Angeles Chargers at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SF by 0.0. The market has LAC at +8.5.
San Francisco 49ers won, LAC 16, SF 22. Our model had favored Los Angeles Chargers at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Chargers at +8.5, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Chargers to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 10, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the San Francisco 49ers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.7, 2.2 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2022 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, San Francisco 49ers: LAC +0.001 against SF +0.211.
