Texans vs Giants – Week 10 2022
HOU
NYG
HOU
AWAY
16@24
NYG BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 10
2022 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 16, New York Giants 24.
Going in, our model had favored New York Giants at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Texans, 2 Giants.
Model confidence: NYG 68%Our line: NYG -6.3
ODDS
SPREAD
NYG -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NYG -6.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NYG · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.192Net EPA / play-0.016
-0.189 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.030 (9)
+0.003 (17)Defense EPA / play+0.046 (28)
36.9% (32)Offense success %44.9% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
NYG B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NYG by 6.3. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 1.7 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NYG
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills3118 yd · 17 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Dameon Pierce939 yd · 4 TD
Dare Ogunbowale123 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman117 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks57 rec · 699 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs NYG
Our model takes New York Giants at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NYG by 6.3. The market has NYG at -5.5.
New York Giants won, HOU 16, NYG 24. Our model had favored New York Giants at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New York Giants at -5.5, meaning the book expects New York Giants to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 10, the Houston Texans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 5.0 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New York Giants: HOU -0.192 against NYG -0.016.
