HOU @ NYG – Week 10 2022
HOU
NYG
HOU
AWAY
16@24
NYG BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 10
2022 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
Model confidence: NYG 68%Our line: NYG -6.3
NYG
PICK SIDE
-5.5
MARKET SPREAD
-6.3
OUR LINE
-211
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2022 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.192Net EPA / play-0.016
-0.189Offense EPA / play+0.030
+0.003Defense EPA / play+0.046
36.9%Offense success %44.9%
45.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NYG B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NYG by 6.3. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 1.7 points of the real margin.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | HOU | NYG |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +195 | -221 |
| Our fair price | +211 | -211 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NYG -5.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.45
OUR NUMBER
68%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
67%
DIFFERENCE
+1%
Both figures are for NYG. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-5 ATS (38%)
NYG
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
50°F
WIND
15 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
HOU
Davis Mills
QB
181.5 SEASON PPR
Dameon Pierce
RB
166.4 SEASON PPR
Brandin Cooks
WR
145.6 SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Houston TexansPASSING
Davis Mills3118 yd · 17 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Dameon Pierce939 yd · 4 TD
Dare Ogunbowale123 yd · 1 TD
Royce Freeman117 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Brandin Cooks57 rec · 699 yd · 3 TD
Chris Moore48 rec · 548 yd · 2 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs NYG
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New York Giants at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NYG by 6.3. The market has NYG at -5.5.
The model projects 46.5 combined points. The market total is 41.5.
Week 10 of the 2022 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, New York Giants: HOU -0.192 against NYG -0.016.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
