Cowboys vs Packers – Week 10 2022
DAL
GB
DAL
AWAY
28@31
GB BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 10
2022 SEASON
Lambeau Field · Green Bay, WI
GB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 28, Green Bay Packers 31.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Cowboys, 5 Packers.
Model confidence: DAL 70%Our line: DAL -7.0
ODDS
SPREAD
DAL -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
DAL -7.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
DAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2022 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.109Net EPA / play-0.034
+0.012 (11)Offense EPA / play+0.003 (16)
-0.097 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.037 (27)
44.6% (15)Offense success %45.8% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL B-tier pick misses. GB takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but GB won. Projected margin was 7.0, the model overestimated by 10.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
COLD GAME
33°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Road Favorite 1-3 ATS (25%)
GB
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
33°F
WIND
8 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2022 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2022 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@GBW6 2026 | DAL 13, GB 23 | GB | W |
| GB@DALW4 2025 | GB 40, DAL 40 | GB | P |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs GB
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 70% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project DAL by 7.0. The market has DAL at -3.5.
Green Bay Packers won, DAL 28, GB 31. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 70% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at -3.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 10, the Dallas Cowboys were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Green Bay Packers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.8, 1.3 above the market.
Week 10 of the 2022 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Green Bay Packers, DAL 13, GB 23 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2022 season, Dallas Cowboys: DAL +0.109 against GB -0.034.
