Packers vs Cowboys – Week 4 2025
GB
DAL
GB
AWAY
40@40
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys tied, 40-40.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 64% win probability, and the pick pushed.
Out or doubtful: 3 Packers, 2 Cowboys.
Model confidence: GB 64%Our line: GB -4.7
ODDS
SPREAD
GB -7.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -4.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.082Net EPA / play-0.070
+0.115 (4)Offense EPA / play+0.097 (5)
+0.033 (22)Defense EPA / play+0.167 (32)
47.7% (5)Offense success %46.6% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick ends in a tie, a push, not a loss.
PUSH
The game ended in a tie, 40-40. Neither side took it. The pick is graded a push, not a loss.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
This one ended in a tie, a push. Ties sit out of the win rate; they are not counted as losses.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@GBW6 2026 | DAL 13, GB 23 | GB | W |
| DAL@GBW10 2022 | DAL 28, GB 31 | DAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs DAL
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 4.7. The market has GB at -7.0.
Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys tied, GB 40, DAL 40. Going in, our model favored Green Bay Packers at 64% win probability.
The market has Green Bay Packers at -7.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 4, the Green Bay Packers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.6, 1.9 below the market.
Week 4 of the 2025 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Green Bay Packers, DAL 13, GB 23 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.082 against DAL -0.070.
