GB @ DAL – Week 4 2025
GB
DAL
GB
AWAY
40@40
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
Model confidence: GB 64%Our line: GB -4.7
GB
PICK SIDE
-7.0
MARKET SPREAD
-4.7
OUR LINE
-175
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.082Net EPA / play-0.070
+0.115Offense EPA / play+0.097
+0.033Defense EPA / play+0.167
47.7%Offense success %46.6%
44.8%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick ends in a tie, a push, not a loss.
PUSH
The game ended in a tie, 40-40. Neither side took it. The pick is graded a push, not a loss.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
This one ended in a tie, a push. Ties sit out of the win rate; they are not counted as losses.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | GB | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -345 | +275 |
| Our fair price | -175 | +175 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB -7.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost
OUR NUMBER
64%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
74%
DIFFERENCE
-11%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
237.1 SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
235.1 SEASON PPR
R.Doubs
WR
165.4 SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Green Bay PackersPASSING
J.Love3381 yd · 23 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
J.Jacobs929 yd · 13 TD
E.Wilson496 yd · 3 TD
J.Love199 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
R.Doubs55 rec · 724 yd · 6 TD
C.Watson35 rec · 611 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@GBW10 2022 | DAL 28, GB 31 | DAL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs DAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 4.7. The market has GB at -7.0.
The model projects 45.6 combined points. The market total is 47.5.
Week 4 of the 2025 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Green Bay Packers, DAL 28, GB 31 in Week 10 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.082 against DAL -0.070.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
