2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
GB @ DAL – Week 4 2025
GB
DAL
GB
AWAY
40@40
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
DAL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: GB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: GB 64%Projected margin: -2.4
GB
PICK SIDE
-7.0
SPREAD
-2.4
PROJ MARGIN
-274
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. DAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but DAL won. Projected margin was 2.4 -- the model overestimated by 2.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.0 | GB market line | |
| MODEL ML | -274 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Lost |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 1-5 ATS (17%)
DAL
Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
237.1SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
235.1SEASON PPR
R.Doubs
WR
165.4SEASON PPR
DAL
D.Prescott
QB
313.8SEASON PPR
G.Pickens
WR
291.9SEASON PPR
J.Williams
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DAL@GBW10 2022 | DAL 28, GB 31 | DAL | L |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES