PHI @ TB – Week 4 2025
PHI
TB
PHI
AWAY
31@25
PHI BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
Model confidence: TB 50%Our line: TB +0.0
TB
PICK SIDE
+3.5
MARKET SPREAD
+0.0
OUR LINE
+100
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.105Net EPA / play-0.022
+0.026Offense EPA / play-0.009
-0.079Defense EPA / play+0.013
43.1%Offense success %42.4%
41.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but PHI won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 6.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PHI | TB |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -185 | +154 |
| Our fair price | -100 | +100 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TB +3.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
50%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
38%
DIFFERENCE
+12%
Both figures are for TB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
88°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PHI
J.Hurts
QB
301.1 SEASON PPR
S.Barkley
RB
232.3 SEASON PPR
A.Brown
WR
220.3 SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
J.Hurts3224 yd · 25 TD · 6 INT
RUSHING
S.Barkley1140 yd · 7 TD
J.Hurts421 yd · 8 TD
T.Bigsby344 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
D.Smith77 rec · 1008 yd · 4 TD
A.Brown78 rec · 1003 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@TBW4 2024 | PHI 16, TB 33 | PHI | L |
| PHI@TBW3 2023 | PHI 25, TB 11 | TB | L |
| TB@PHIW6 2021 | TB 28, PHI 22 | TB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs TB
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PHI by 0.0. The market has TB at +3.5.
The model projects 46.3 combined points. The market total is 44.5.
Week 4 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, PHI 16, TB 33 in Week 4 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.105 against TB -0.022.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
