Eagles vs Buccaneers – Week 4 2025
PHI
TB
PHI
AWAY
31@25
PHI BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 31, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Eagles, 2 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 50%Our line: TB +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
TB +3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB +0.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
50%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
+0.105Net EPA / play-0.022
+0.026 (15)Offense EPA / play-0.009 (20)
-0.079 (8)Defense EPA / play+0.013 (17)
43.1% (20)Offense success %42.4% (24)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but PHI won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 6.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
88°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@TBW4 2024 | PHI 16, TB 33 | PHI | L |
| PHI@TBW3 2023 | PHI 25, TB 11 | TB | L |
| TB@PHIW6 2021 | TB 28, PHI 22 | TB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PHI by 0.0. The market has TB at +3.5.
Philadelphia Eagles won, PHI 31, TB 25. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at +3.5, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 4, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.3, 1.8 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, PHI 16, TB 33 in Week 4 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Philadelphia Eagles: PHI +0.105 against TB -0.022.
