2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PHI @ TB – Week 4 2025
PHI
TB
PHI
AWAY
31@25
PHI +6
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
TB
HOME
TIER C
PICK: TB
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: TB 50%Projected margin: 0.3
TB
PICK SIDE
+3.5
SPREAD
0.3
PROJ MARGIN
+165
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
TB C-tier pick misses. PHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but PHI won. Projected margin was 0.3 -- the model overestimated by 6.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 2.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +3.5 | TB market line | |
| MODEL ML | +165 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | +165 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
TB
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
88°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
PHI
J.Hurts
QB
301.1SEASON PPR
S.Barkley
RB
232.3SEASON PPR
A.Brown
WR
220.3SEASON PPR
TB
B.Mayfield
QB
271.9SEASON PPR
E.Egbuka
WR
195.7SEASON PPR
R.White
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI@TBW4 2024 | PHI 16, TB 33 | PHI | L |
| PHI@TBW3 2023 | PHI 25, TB 11 | TB | L |
| TB@PHIW6 2021 | TB 28, PHI 22 | TB | W |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES