2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
TEN @ HOU – Week 4 2025
TEN
HOU
TEN
AWAY
0@26
HOU +26
FINAL · WEEK 4
2025 SEASON
HOU
HOME
TIER A
PICK: HOU
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: HOU 72%Projected margin: 6.4
HOU
PICK SIDE
-7.5
SPREAD
6.4
PROJ MARGIN
-294
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 6.4. Actual: 26. Off by 19.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -7.5 | HOU market line | |
| MODEL ML | -294 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.34 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
TEN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
HOU
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TEN
C.Ward
QB
186.7SEASON PPR
T.Pollard
RB
185.8SEASON PPR
C.Dike
WR
128.1SEASON PPR
HOU
N.Collins
WR
226.2SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
208.5SEASON PPR
D.Schultz
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@TENW11 2025 | HOU 16, TEN 13 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW18 2024 | HOU 23, TEN 14 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW12 2024 | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU | L |
| TEN@HOUW17 2023 | TEN 3, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW15 2023 | HOU 19, TEN 16 | TEN | L |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES