Titans vs Texans – Week 17 2023
TEN
HOU
TEN
AWAY
3@26
HOU BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Tennessee Titans 3, Houston Texans 26.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Titans, 1 Texans.
Model confidence: HOU 69%Our line: HOU -6.6
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU -5.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -6.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
69%
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.055Net EPA / play+0.014
-0.047 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.028 (15)
+0.007 (23)Defense EPA / play-0.043 (13)
39.7% (26)Offense success %40.9% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 6.6. Actual: 23. Off by 16.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Will Levis1808 yd · 8 TD · 4 INT
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@TENW5 2026 | HOU 26, TEN 3 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW11 2025 | HOU 16, TEN 13 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW18 2024 | HOU 23, TEN 14 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW12 2024 | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project HOU by 6.6. The market has HOU at -5.0.
Houston Texans won, TEN 3, HOU 26. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 69% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Houston Texans at -5.0, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 5.0 points.
In Week 17, the Tennessee Titans were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 42.7, 1.3 below the market.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 26, TEN 3 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Houston Texans: TEN -0.055 against HOU +0.014.
