TEN @ HOU – Week 17 2023
TEN
HOU
TEN
AWAY
3@26
HOU BY 23
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
Model confidence: HOU 69%Our line: HOU -6.6
HOU
PICK SIDE
-5.0
MARKET SPREAD
-6.6
OUR LINE
-221
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.055Net EPA / play+0.014
-0.047Offense EPA / play-0.028
+0.007Defense EPA / play-0.043
39.7%Offense success %40.9%
43.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked HOU. Projected margin: 6.6. Actual: 23. Off by 16.4 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 18.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TEN | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +190 | -230 |
| Our fair price | +221 | -221 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD HOU -5.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.49
OUR NUMBER
69%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
67%
DIFFERENCE
+2%
Both figures are for HOU. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TEN
Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
HOU
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
TEN
Derrick Henry
RB
246.7 SEASON PPR
DeAndre Hopkins
WR
223.6 SEASON PPR
Tyjae Spears
RB
153.8 SEASON PPR
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
Will Levis1808 yd · 8 TD · 4 INT
RUSHING
Derrick Henry1167 yd · 12 TD
Tyjae Spears453 yd · 2 TD
Ryan Tannehill74 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
DeAndre Hopkins75 rec · 1057 yd · 7 TD
Chig Okonkwo54 rec · 528 yd · 1 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@TENW11 2025 | HOU 16, TEN 13 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW4 2025 | TEN 0, HOU 26 | HOU | W |
| HOU@TENW18 2024 | HOU 23, TEN 14 | HOU | W |
| TEN@HOUW12 2024 | TEN 32, HOU 27 | HOU | L |
| HOU@TENW15 2023 | HOU 19, TEN 16 | TEN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs HOU
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Houston Texans at 69% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project HOU by 6.6. The market has HOU at -5.0.
The model projects 42.7 combined points. The market total is 44.0.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 16, TEN 13 in Week 11 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Houston Texans: TEN -0.055 against HOU +0.014.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
