Jets vs Browns – Week 17 2023
NYJ
CLE
NYJ
AWAY
20@37
CLE BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 17
2023 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 20, Cleveland Browns 37.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Jets, 4 Browns.
Model confidence: CLE 77%Our line: CLE -9.8
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -9.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 17
-0.133Net EPA / play+0.045
-0.252 (32)Offense EPA / play-0.141 (28)
-0.119 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.186 (1)
35.0% (32)Offense success %38.9% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 9.8. Actual: 17. Off by 7.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 10.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
CLE
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
47°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
Zach Wilson2271 yd · 8 TD · 7 INT
RECEIVING
Garrett Wilson95 rec · 1042 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 17
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@NYJW5 2026 | CLE 12, NYJ 17 | CLE | L |
| CLE@NYJW10 2025 | CLE 20, NYJ 27 | NYJ | W |
| NYJ@CLEW2 2022 | NYJ 31, CLE 30 | CLE | L |
| CLE@NYJW16 2020 | CLE 16, NYJ 23 | CLE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 17 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs CLE
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 77% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project CLE by 9.8. The market has CLE at -6.5.
Cleveland Browns won, NYJ 20, CLE 37. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -6.5, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 17, the New York Jets were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 33.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 11.8 above the market.
Week 17 of the 2023 season, THU 8:15 PM.
New York Jets, CLE 12, NYJ 17 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Cleveland Browns: NYJ -0.133 against CLE +0.045.
