Browns vs Jets – Week 16 2020
CLE
NYJ
CLE
AWAY
16@23
NYJ BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 16
2020 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYJ
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 16, New York Jets 23.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Browns, 1 Jets.
Model confidence: CLE 68%Our line: CLE -6.3
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -6.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.011Net EPA / play-0.227
+0.088 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.143 (32)
+0.077 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.084 (25)
46.6% (9)Offense success %40.2% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE A+-tier pick misses. NYJ takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but NYJ won. Projected margin was 6.3, the model overestimated by 13.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
NYJ
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@NYJW5 2026 | CLE 12, NYJ 17 | CLE | L |
| CLE@NYJW10 2025 | CLE 20, NYJ 27 | NYJ | W |
| NYJ@CLEW17 2023 | NYJ 20, CLE 37 | CLE | W |
| NYJ@CLEW2 2022 | NYJ 31, CLE 30 | CLE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs NYJ
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 68% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project CLE by 6.3. The market has CLE at -6.5.
New York Jets won, CLE 16, NYJ 23. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -6.5, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 16, the Cleveland Browns were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Jets were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 49.0, 4.0 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
New York Jets, CLE 12, NYJ 17 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE +0.011 against NYJ -0.227.
