TB @ DET – Week 16 2020
TB
DET
TB
AWAY
47@7
TB BY 40
FINAL · WEEK 16
2020 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
Model confidence: TB 66%Our line: TB -5.5
TB
PICK SIDE
-12.0
MARKET SPREAD
-5.5
OUR LINE
-192
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.170Net EPA / play-0.208
+0.119Offense EPA / play-0.005
-0.051Defense EPA / play+0.203
45.9%Offense success %44.3%
41.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
TB A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked TB. Projected margin: 5.5. Actual: 40. Off by 34.5 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 28.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | TB | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -591 | +455 |
| Our fair price | -192 | +192 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD TB -12.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.18
OUR NUMBER
66%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
83%
DIFFERENCE
-17%
Both figures are for TB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
TB
No noteworthy trends
DET
Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
TB
Tom Brady
QB
337.9 SEASON PPR
Mike Evans
WR
248.6 SEASON PPR
Chris Godwin Jr.
WR
191.0 SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tampa Bay BuccaneersPASSING
Tom Brady4633 yd · 40 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Ronald Jones978 yd · 7 TD
Leonard Fournette367 yd · 6 TD
Ke'Shawn Vaughn109 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Mike Evans70 rec · 1006 yd · 13 TD
Chris Godwin Jr.65 rec · 840 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 3 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@DETW7 2025 | TB 9, DET 24 | DET | W |
| TB@DETW2 2024 | TB 20, DET 16 | DET | L |
| DET@TBW6 2023 | DET 20, TB 6 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSTB vs DET
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 66% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project TB by 5.5. The market has TB at -12.0.
The model projects 47.5 combined points. The market total is 55.0.
Week 16 of the 2020 season, SAT 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, TB 9, DET 24 in Week 7 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: TB +0.170 against DET -0.208.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
