Giants vs Ravens – Week 16 2020
NYG
BAL
NYG
AWAY
13@27
BAL BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 16
2020 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 13, Baltimore Ravens 27.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Giants, 1 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 68%Our line: BAL -6.3
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -10.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -6.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.086Net EPA / play+0.180
-0.056 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.120 (5)
+0.031 (16)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (5)
41.6% (27)Offense success %45.8% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 6.3. Actual: 14. Off by 7.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 4.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@NYGW15 2024 | BAL 35, NYG 14 | BAL | W |
| BAL@NYGW6 2022 | BAL 20, NYG 24 | BAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 68% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BAL by 6.3. The market has BAL at -10.0.
Baltimore Ravens won, NYG 13, BAL 27. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 68% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -10.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 10.0 points.
In Week 16, the New York Giants were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 3.1 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 35, NYG 14 in Week 15 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Baltimore Ravens: NYG -0.086 against BAL +0.180.
