Bengals vs Texans – Week 16 2020
CIN
HOU
CIN
AWAY
37@31
CIN BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 16
2020 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 37, Houston Texans 31.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Bengals, 1 Texans.
Model confidence: HOU 57%Our line: HOU -2.5
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -2.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
57%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.141Net EPA / play-0.071
-0.049 (26)Offense EPA / play+0.099 (7)
+0.092 (26)Defense EPA / play+0.170 (31)
43.6% (23)Offense success %47.6% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick misses. CIN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked HOU but CIN won. Projected margin was 2.5, the model overestimated by 8.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 9 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 13.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
No noteworthy trends
HOU
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
HOU
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CIN@HOUW2 2026 | CIN 20, HOU 6 | HOU | L |
| HOU@CINW10 2023 | HOU 30, CIN 27 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 57% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project HOU by 2.5. The market has HOU at -7.5.
Cincinnati Bengals won, CIN 37, HOU 31. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 57% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Houston Texans at -7.5, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 16, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.0, 0.0 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cincinnati Bengals, CIN 20, HOU 6 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Houston Texans: CIN -0.141 against HOU -0.071.
