CAR @ WAS – Week 16 2020
CAR
WAS
CAR
AWAY
20@13
CAR BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 16
2020 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
Model confidence: WAS 58%Our line: WAS -2.6
WAS
PICK SIDE
+1.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.6
OUR LINE
-136
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.073Net EPA / play+0.023
+0.004Offense EPA / play-0.067
+0.077Defense EPA / play-0.091
45.0%Offense success %41.2%
47.2%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but CAR won. Projected margin was 2.6, the model overestimated by 9.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | CAR | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -112 | +102 |
| Our fair price | +136 | -136 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD WAS +1.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Lost · -$1.00
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
48%
DIFFERENCE
+9%
Both figures are for WAS. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2 SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1 SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
212.1 SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3733 yd · 15 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
Mike Davis642 yd · 6 TD
Teddy Bridgewater279 yd · 5 TD
Christian McCaffrey225 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Moore66 rec · 1193 yd · 4 TD
Robbie Chosen95 rec · 1096 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@WASW7 2024 | CAR 7, WAS 40 | WAS | W |
| WAS@CARW11 2021 | WAS 27, CAR 21 | CAR | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs WAS
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 2.6. The market has WAS at +1.0.
The model projects 47.9 combined points. The market total is 41.0.
Week 16 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Washington Commanders, CAR 7, WAS 40 in Week 7 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Washington Commanders: CAR -0.073 against WAS +0.023.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
