Panthers vs Commanders – Week 16 2020
CAR
WAS
CAR
AWAY
20@13
CAR BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 16
2020 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Carolina Panthers 20, Washington Commanders 13.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Panthers, 2 Commanders.
Model confidence: WAS 58%Our line: WAS -2.6
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS +1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -2.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
-0.073Net EPA / play+0.023
+0.004 (20)Offense EPA / play-0.067 (29)
+0.077 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.091 (3)
45.0% (19)Offense success %41.2% (29)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick misses. CAR takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but CAR won. Projected margin was 2.6, the model overestimated by 9.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CAR
Home Underdog 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CAR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
241.2 SEASON PPR
Robbie Chosen
WR
224.1 SEASON PPR
Curtis Samuel
WR
212.1 SEASON PPR
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Carolina PanthersPASSING
Teddy Bridgewater3733 yd · 15 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@WASW7 2024 | CAR 7, WAS 40 | WAS | W |
| WAS@CARW11 2021 | WAS 27, CAR 21 | CAR | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCAR vs WAS
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 2.6. The market has WAS at +1.0.
Carolina Panthers won, CAR 20, WAS 13. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 58% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Washington Commanders at +1.0, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 16, the Carolina Panthers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.9, 6.9 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Washington Commanders, CAR 7, WAS 40 in Week 7 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Washington Commanders: CAR -0.073 against WAS +0.023.
