2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
IND @ PIT – Week 16 2020
IND
PIT
IND
AWAY
24@28
PIT +4
FINAL · WEEK 16
2020 SEASON
PIT
HOME
TIER C
PICK: IND
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: IND 52%Projected margin: -1.1
IND
PICK SIDE
-1.0
SPREAD
-1.1
PROJ MARGIN
-115
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but PIT won. Projected margin was 1.1 -- the model overestimated by 5.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.0 | IND market line | |
| MODEL ML | -115 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -106 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
IND
Jonathan Taylor
RB
252.8SEASON PPR
Philip Rivers
QB
240.0SEASON PPR
Nyheim Hines
RB
193.2SEASON PPR
PIT
Ben Roethlisberger
QB
267.2SEASON PPR
JuJu Smith-Schuster
WR
234.1SEASON PPR
Diontae Johnson
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@PITW9 2025 | IND 20, PIT 27 | IND | L |
| PIT@INDW4 2024 | PIT 24, IND 27 | PIT | L |
| PIT@INDW15 2023 | PIT 13, IND 30 | PIT | L |
| PIT@INDW12 2022 | PIT 24, IND 17 | IND | L |
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES