Colts vs Steelers – Week 16 2020
IND
PIT
IND
AWAY
24@28
PIT BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 16
2020 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Indianapolis Colts 24, Pittsburgh Steelers 28.
Going in, our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Colts, 1 Steelers.
Model confidence: IND 52%Our line: IND -0.8
ODDS
SPREAD
IND -1.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
IND -0.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
IND · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
52%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 16
+0.109Net EPA / play+0.128
+0.079 (12)Offense EPA / play+0.010 (17)
-0.030 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.118 (2)
46.6% (10)Offense success %43.2% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
IND C-tier pick misses. PIT takes it.
MISSED
Model picked IND but PIT won. Projected margin was 0.8, the model overestimated by 4.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
IND
Road Favorite 5-2 ATS (71%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
37°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Indianapolis ColtsPASSING
Philip Rivers4169 yd · 24 TD · 11 INT
RECEIVING
T.Y. Hilton56 rec · 762 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 16
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@PITW5 2026 | IND 22, PIT 34 | PIT | W |
| IND@PITW9 2025 | IND 20, PIT 27 | IND | L |
| PIT@INDW4 2024 | PIT 24, IND 27 | PIT | L |
| PIT@INDW15 2023 | PIT 13, IND 30 | PIT | L |
| PIT@INDW12 2022 | PIT 24, IND 17 | IND | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 16 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSIND vs PIT
Our model takes Indianapolis Colts at 52% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project IND by 0.8. The market has IND at -1.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, IND 24, PIT 28. Our model had favored Indianapolis Colts at 52% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Indianapolis Colts at -1.0, meaning the book expects Indianapolis Colts to win by 1.0 points.
In Week 16, the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.7, 4.7 above the market.
Week 16 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, IND 22, PIT 34 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: IND +0.109 against PIT +0.128.
