2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
PIT @ IND – Week 4 2024
PIT
IND
PIT
AWAY
24@27
IND +3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
IND
HOME
TIER B
PICK: PIT
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: PIT 65%Projected margin: -2.9
PIT
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-2.9
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but IND won. Projected margin was 2.9 -- the model overestimated by 5.9 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -130 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
PIT
N.Harris
RB
204.6SEASON PPR
R.Wilson
QB
172.8SEASON PPR
P.Freiermuth
TE
168.3SEASON PPR
IND
J.Taylor
RB
246.7SEASON PPR
J.Downs
WR
182.2SEASON PPR
M.Pittman
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 4 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@PITW9 2025 | IND 20, PIT 27 | IND | L |
| PIT@INDW15 2023 | PIT 13, IND 30 | PIT | L |
| PIT@INDW12 2022 | PIT 24, IND 17 | IND | L |
| IND@PITW16 2020 | IND 24, PIT 28 | IND | L |
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES