Steelers vs Colts – Week 4 2024
PIT
IND
PIT
AWAY
24@27
IND BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
Lucas Oil Stadium · Indianapolis, IN
IND
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 24, Indianapolis Colts 27.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Steelers, 2 Colts.
Model confidence: PIT 65%Our line: PIT -5.0
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -5.0
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.016Net EPA / play-0.061
-0.034 (20)Offense EPA / play-0.057 (24)
-0.018 (10)Defense EPA / play+0.004 (13)
40.4% (27)Offense success %40.2% (28)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick misses. IND takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but IND won. Projected margin was 5.0, the model overestimated by 8.0 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
IND
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
IND
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| IND@PITW5 2026 | IND 22, PIT 34 | PIT | W |
| IND@PITW9 2025 | IND 20, PIT 27 | IND | L |
| PIT@INDW15 2023 | PIT 13, IND 30 | PIT | L |
| PIT@INDW12 2022 | PIT 24, IND 17 | IND | L |
| IND@PITW16 2020 | IND 24, PIT 28 | IND | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs IND
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 5.0. The market has PIT at -2.5.
Indianapolis Colts won, PIT 24, IND 27. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 65% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -2.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 4, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Indianapolis Colts were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.3, 3.3 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, IND 22, PIT 34 in Week 5 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: PIT -0.016 against IND -0.061.
