Jaguars vs Texans – Week 4 2024
JAX
HOU
JAX
AWAY
20@24
HOU BY 4
FINAL · WEEK 4
2024 SEASON
NRG Stadium · Houston, TX
HOU
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 20, Houston Texans 24.
Going in, our model had favored Houston Texans at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Jaguars, 3 Texans.
Model confidence: HOU 65%Our line: HOU -5.3
ODDS
SPREAD
HOU -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
HOU -5.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
HOU · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 4
-0.149Net EPA / play+0.015
-0.020 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.050 (22)
+0.129 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.065 (5)
41.5% (21)Offense success %38.8% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
HOU B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected HOU by 5.3. Actual: 4 points. The model was within 1.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 10 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
BAD BEAT
Missed the spread by just 1.5 points, a bad-beat loss.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
HOU
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 4
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@JAXW6 2026 | HOU 34, JAX 31 | JAX | L |
| JAX@HOUW10 2025 | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW3 2025 | HOU 10, JAX 17 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW12 2023 | JAX 24, HOU 21 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 4 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs HOU
Our model takes Houston Texans at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project HOU by 5.3. The market has HOU at -5.5.
Houston Texans won, JAX 20, HOU 24. Our model had favored Houston Texans at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Houston Texans at -5.5, meaning the book expects Houston Texans to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 4, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Houston Texans were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 1.6 above the market.
Week 4 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 34, JAX 31 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Houston Texans: JAX -0.149 against HOU +0.015.
