Texans vs Jaguars – Week 3 2025
HOU
JAX
HOU
AWAY
10@17
JAX BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
EverBank Stadium · Jacksonville, FL
JAX
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Houston Texans 10, Jacksonville Jaguars 17.
Going in, our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Texans, 1 Jaguars.
Model confidence: JAX 65%Our line: JAX -5.1
ODDS
SPREAD
JAX -1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
JAX -5.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
JAX · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.118Net EPA / play+0.136
-0.013 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.030 (14)
-0.131 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.105 (3)
41.3% (28)Offense success %44.4% (15)
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected JAX by 5.1. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 1.9 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
HOU
No noteworthy trends
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
11 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU@JAXW6 2026 | HOU 34, JAX 31 | JAX | L |
| JAX@HOUW10 2025 | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW12 2023 | JAX 24, HOU 21 | JAX | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSHOU vs JAX
Our model takes Jacksonville Jaguars at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project JAX by 5.1. The market has JAX at -1.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars won, HOU 10, JAX 17. Our model had favored Jacksonville Jaguars at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Jacksonville Jaguars at -1.5, meaning the book expects Jacksonville Jaguars to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 3, the Houston Texans were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.4, 2.9 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2025 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Houston Texans, HOU 34, JAX 31 in Week 6 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Jacksonville Jaguars: HOU +0.118 against JAX +0.136.
