2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
HOU @ JAX – Week 3 2025
HOU
JAX
HOU
AWAY
10@17
JAX +7
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
JAX
HOME
TIER B
PICK: JAX
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: JAX 65%Projected margin: 2.8
JAX
PICK SIDE
-1.5
SPREAD
2.8
PROJ MARGIN
-124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
JAX B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked JAX. Projected margin: 2.8. Actual: 7. Off by 4.2 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -1.5 | JAX market line | |
| MODEL ML | -124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.81 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
HOU
No noteworthy trends
JAX
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
11 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
HOU
N.Collins
WR
226.2SEASON PPR
C.Stroud
QB
208.5SEASON PPR
D.Schultz
TE
177.7SEASON PPR
JAX
T.Lawrence
QB
338.2SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
253.9SEASON PPR
P.Washington
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@HOUW10 2025 | JAX 29, HOU 36 | JAX | L |
| HOU@JAXW13 2024 | HOU 23, JAX 20 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW4 2024 | JAX 20, HOU 24 | HOU | W |
| JAX@HOUW12 2023 | JAX 24, HOU 21 | JAX | W |
| HOU@JAXW3 2023 | HOU 37, JAX 17 | JAX | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES