Saints vs Seahawks – Week 3 2025
NO
SEA
NO
AWAY
13@44
SEA BY 31
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 13, Seattle Seahawks 44.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Saints, 4 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SEA 72%Our line: SEA -7.9
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -7.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -7.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.029Net EPA / play+0.150
-0.088 (27)Offense EPA / play+0.033 (13)
-0.059 (10)Defense EPA / play-0.117 (2)
42.0% (26)Offense success %46.3% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 7.9. Actual: 31. Off by 23.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 23.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
SEA
Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
63°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@NOW5 2022 | SEA 32, NO 39 | SEA | L |
| NO@SEAW7 2021 | NO 13, SEA 10 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs SEA
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project SEA by 7.9. The market has SEA at -7.5.
Seattle Seahawks won, NO 13, SEA 44. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 72% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -7.5, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 7.5 points.
In Week 3, the New Orleans Saints were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 3.8 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2025 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
New Orleans Saints, SEA 32, NO 39 in Week 5 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Seattle Seahawks: NO -0.029 against SEA +0.150.
