2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ NYG – Week 3 2025
KC
NYG
KC
AWAY
22@9
KC +13
FINAL · WEEK 3
2025 SEASON
NYG
HOME
TIER A
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: KC 72%Projected margin: -5.2
KC
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
-5.2
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked KC. Projected margin: 5.2. Actual: 13. Off by 7.8 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | — | Won · +$0.42 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Road Favorite 1-7 ATS (13%)
NYG
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
65°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
285.7SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
193.2SEASON PPR
R.Rice
WR
150.1SEASON PPR
NYG
J.Dart
QB
241.6SEASON PPR
W.Robinson
WR
217.9SEASON PPR
T.Tracy
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@KCW8 2021 | NYG 17, KC 20 | KC | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES