Giants vs Chiefs – Week 8 2021
NYG
KC
NYG
AWAY
17@20
KC BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 8
2021 SEASON
GEHA Field at Arrowhead · Kansas City, MO
KC
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 17, Kansas City Chiefs 20.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 5 Giants, 2 Chiefs.
Model confidence: KC 61%Our line: KC -3.8
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -10.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -3.8
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
61%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.192Net EPA / play+0.119
-0.161 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.144 (1)
+0.031 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.025 (20)
39.3% (30)Offense success %51.1% (1)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 3.8. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.8 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 7.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
KC
Windy 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
39°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
KC
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs KC
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 61% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 3.8. The market has KC at -10.5.
Kansas City Chiefs won, NYG 17, KC 20. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 61% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -10.5, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 10.5 points.
In Week 8, the New York Giants were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Kansas City Chiefs were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.0, 6.0 below the market.
Week 8 of the 2021 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, KC 22, NYG 9 in Week 3 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Kansas City Chiefs: NYG -0.192 against KC +0.119.
