2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
WAS @ DEN – Week 8 2021
WAS
DEN
WAS
AWAY
10@17
DEN +7
FINAL · WEEK 8
2021 SEASON
DEN
HOME
TIER C
PICK: WAS
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: WAS 51%Projected margin: -0.5
WAS
PICK SIDE
+4.0
SPREAD
-0.5
PROJ MARGIN
+178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS C-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but DEN won. Projected margin was 0.5 -- the model overestimated by 7.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +4.0 | WAS market line | |
| MODEL ML | +178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -191 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
WAS
Antonio Gibson
RB
229.1SEASON PPR
Taylor Heinicke
QB
222.9SEASON PPR
Terry McLaurin
WR
213.5SEASON PPR
DEN
Javonte Williams
RB
204.9SEASON PPR
Teddy Bridgewater
QB
202.7SEASON PPR
Melvin Gordon
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@WASW13 2025 | DEN 27, WAS 26 | DEN | W |
| WAS@DENW2 2023 | WAS 35, DEN 33 | WAS | W |
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES