Commanders vs Broncos – Week 8 2021
WAS
DEN
WAS
AWAY
10@17
DEN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 8
2021 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 10, Denver Broncos 17.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Commanders, 1 Broncos.
Model confidence: WAS 51%Our line: WAS -0.4
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS +4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -0.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
51%
TEAM COMPARISON2021 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 8
-0.124Net EPA / play+0.004
-0.057 (21)Offense EPA / play+0.015 (17)
+0.067 (26)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (18)
43.9% (20)Offense success %44.7% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS C-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked WAS but DEN won. Projected margin was 0.4, the model overestimated by 7.4 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 3.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
DEN
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Windy 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
41°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2021 SEASON
WAS
Antonio Gibson
RB
229.1 SEASON PPR
Taylor Heinicke
QB
222.9 SEASON PPR
Terry McLaurin
WR
213.5 SEASON PPR
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2021 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Taylor Heinicke3419 yd · 20 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Antonio Gibson1037 yd · 7 TD
Taylor Heinicke313 yd · 1 TD
Jaret Patterson266 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin77 rec · 1053 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 8
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@WASW13 2025 | DEN 27, WAS 26 | DEN | W |
| WAS@DENW2 2023 | WAS 35, DEN 33 | WAS | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 8 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs DEN
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 51% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project WAS by 0.4. The market has WAS at +4.0.
Denver Broncos won, WAS 10, DEN 17. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 51% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Washington Commanders at +4.0, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 8, the Washington Commanders were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.1, 3.1 above the market.
Week 8 of the 2021 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 27, WAS 26 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2021 season, Denver Broncos: WAS -0.124 against DEN +0.004.
