Commanders vs Broncos – Week 2 2023
WAS
DEN
WAS
AWAY
35@33
WAS BY 2
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
Empower Field at Mile High · Denver, CO
DEN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 35, Denver Broncos 33.
Going in, our model had favored Washington Commanders at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Commanders, 2 Broncos.
Model confidence: WAS 66%Our line: WAS -5.6
ODDS
SPREAD
WAS +4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
WAS -5.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
WAS · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
WAS · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
36%
DIFFERENCE
+30%
| SOURCE | WAS | DEN | WAS WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +164 | -198 | 35.7% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
-0.190Net EPA / play-0.077
-0.106 (27)Offense EPA / play-0.058 (20)
+0.085 (31)Defense EPA / play+0.019 (26)
41.0% (21)Offense success %42.1% (14)
GAME NARRATIVE
WAS B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked WAS. Projected margin: 5.6. Actual: 2. Off by 3.6 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 6.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 1-4 ATS (20%)Home Underdog 0-4 ATS (0%)
DEN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
DEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Sam Howell3946 yd · 21 TD · 21 INT
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin79 rec · 1002 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DEN@WASW13 2025 | DEN 27, WAS 26 | DEN | W |
| WAS@DENW8 2021 | WAS 10, DEN 17 | WAS | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs DEN
Our model takes Washington Commanders at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project WAS by 5.6. The market has WAS at +4.0.
Washington Commanders won, WAS 35, DEN 33. Our model had favored Washington Commanders at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Washington Commanders at +4.0, meaning the book expects Washington Commanders to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 2, the Washington Commanders were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2023 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Denver Broncos, DEN 27, WAS 26 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Denver Broncos: WAS -0.190 against DEN -0.077.
