Packers vs Falcons – Week 2 2023
GB
ATL
GB
AWAY
24@25
ATL BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Green Bay Packers 24, Atlanta Falcons 25.
Going in, our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Falcons.
Model confidence: GB 64%Our line: GB -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
GB +3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
GB -4.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
GB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
GB · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
42%
DIFFERENCE
+22%
| SOURCE | GB | ATL | GB WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +124 | -148 | 42.5% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.056Net EPA / play-0.040
+0.064 (6)Offense EPA / play-0.099 (26)
+0.008 (24)Defense EPA / play-0.059 (11)
44.6% (9)Offense success %41.1% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
GB B-tier pick misses. ATL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked GB but ATL won. Projected margin was 4.8, the model overestimated by 5.8 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 3-2 ATS (60%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
ATL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@GBW3 2026 | ATL 35, GB 14 | ATL | W |
| ATL@GBW4 2020 | ATL 16, GB 30 | GB | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs ATL
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project GB by 4.8. The market has GB at +3.0.
Atlanta Falcons won, GB 24, ATL 25. Our model had favored Green Bay Packers at 64% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Green Bay Packers at +3.0, meaning the book expects Green Bay Packers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 2, the Atlanta Falcons were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Atlanta Falcons, ATL 35, GB 14 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.056 against ATL -0.040.
