Saints vs Panthers – Week 2 2023
NO
CAR
NO
AWAY
20@17
NO BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New Orleans Saints 20, Carolina Panthers 17.
Going in, our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Model confidence: NO 58%Our line: NO -2.7
ODDS
SPREAD
NO -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
NO -2.7
OUR LINE
PUSH
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
NO · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
NO · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
61%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
| SOURCE | NO | CAR | NO WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -175 | +145 | 61.4% |
WIN % is each book’s odds as a win chance, with the book’s cut taken out. The card above is their average.
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.086Net EPA / play-0.200
-0.014 (13)Offense EPA / play-0.177 (30)
-0.100 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.023 (27)
42.1% (15)Offense success %37.6% (31)
GAME NARRATIVE
NO C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NO by 2.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Derek Carr3878 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@NOW15 2025 | CAR 17, NO 20 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW10 2025 | NO 17, CAR 7 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW9 2024 | NO 22, CAR 23 | NO | L |
| CAR@NOW1 2024 | CAR 10, NO 47 | NO | W |
| CAR@NOW14 2023 | CAR 6, NO 28 | NO | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs CAR
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NO by 2.7. The market has NO at -3.0.
New Orleans Saints won, NO 20, CAR 17. Our model had favored New Orleans Saints at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has New Orleans Saints at -3.0, meaning the book expects New Orleans Saints to win by 3.0 points.
Week 2 of the 2023 season, MON 7:15 PM.
New Orleans Saints, CAR 17, NO 20 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.086 against CAR -0.200.
