2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NO @ CAR – Week 2 2023
NO
CAR
NO
AWAY
20@17
NO +3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
CAR
HOME
TIER C
PICK: NO
PICK WONATS PUSH
Model confidence: NO 58%Projected margin: -0.5
NO
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-0.5
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
NO C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NO by 0.5. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 2.5 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push -- no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | NO market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -175 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NO
Derek Carr
QB
241.1SEASON PPR
Alvin Kamara
RB
233.0SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
231.3SEASON PPR
CAR
Adam Thielen
WR
231.0SEASON PPR
Chuba Hubbard
RB
182.5SEASON PPR
Bryce Young
QB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@NOW15 2025 | CAR 17, NO 20 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW10 2025 | NO 17, CAR 7 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW9 2024 | NO 22, CAR 23 | NO | L |
| CAR@NOW1 2024 | CAR 10, NO 47 | NO | W |
| CAR@NOW14 2023 | CAR 6, NO 28 | NO | W |
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES