NO @ CAR – Week 2 2023
NO
CAR
NO
AWAY
20@17
NO BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
Bank of America Stadium · Charlotte, NC
CAR
HOME
Model confidence: NO 58%Our line: NO -2.7
NO
PICK SIDE
-3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-2.7
OUR LINE
-137
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
PUSH
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.086Net EPA / play-0.200
-0.014Offense EPA / play-0.177
-0.100Defense EPA / play+0.023
42.1%Offense success %37.6%
39.0%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
NO C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected NO by 2.7. Actual: 3 points. The model was within 0.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
PUSH
Final margin landed exactly on the spread (-3.0). Push, no winner ATS.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | NO | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -175 | +145 |
| Our fair price | -137 | +137 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD NO -3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.65
OUR NUMBER
58%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
61%
DIFFERENCE
-3%
Both figures are for NO. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NO
Divisional 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)
CAR
Divisional 2-3 ATS (40%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
NO
Derek Carr
QB
241.1 SEASON PPR
Alvin Kamara
RB
233.0 SEASON PPR
Chris Olave
WR
231.3 SEASON PPR
CAR
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New Orleans SaintsPASSING
Derek Carr3878 yd · 25 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Alvin Kamara694 yd · 5 TD
Jamaal Williams306 yd · 1 TD
Kendre Miller156 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Chris Olave87 rec · 1123 yd · 5 TD
Rashid Shaheed46 rec · 719 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAR@NOW15 2025 | CAR 17, NO 20 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW10 2025 | NO 17, CAR 7 | CAR | L |
| NO@CARW9 2024 | NO 22, CAR 23 | NO | L |
| CAR@NOW1 2024 | CAR 10, NO 47 | NO | W |
| CAR@NOW14 2023 | CAR 6, NO 28 | NO | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNO vs CAR
QUESTIONS
Our model takes New Orleans Saints at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project NO by 2.7. The market has NO at -3.0.
Week 2 of the 2023 season, MON 7:15 PM.
New Orleans Saints, CAR 17, NO 20 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, New Orleans Saints: NO +0.086 against CAR -0.200.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
