MIA @ NE – Week 2 2023
MIA
NE
MIA
AWAY
24@17
MIA BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
Gillette Stadium · Foxborough, MA
NE
HOME
Model confidence: MIA 60%Our line: MIA -3.3
MIA
PICK SIDE
-2.0
MARKET SPREAD
-3.3
OUR LINE
-148
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2023 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.136Net EPA / play-0.136
+0.097Offense EPA / play-0.191
-0.039Defense EPA / play-0.055
47.2%Offense success %38.9%
42.9%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
MIA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked MIA. Projected margin: 3.3. Actual: 7. Off by 3.7 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | MIA | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | -130 | +110 |
| Our fair price | -148 | +148 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD MIA -2.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.75
OUR NUMBER
60%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
54%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
Both figures are for MIA. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
NE
Home Underdog 1-4 ATS (20%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
MIA
Tyreek Hill
WR
376.4 SEASON PPR
Tua Tagovailoa
QB
270.4 SEASON PPR
Raheem Mostert
RB
267.7 SEASON PPR
NE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Miami DolphinsPASSING
Tua Tagovailoa4624 yd · 29 TD · 14 INT
RUSHING
Raheem Mostert1012 yd · 18 TD
De'Von Achane800 yd · 8 TD
Jeff Wilson188 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
Tyreek Hill119 rec · 1799 yd · 13 TD
Jaylen Waddle72 rec · 1014 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIA@NEW18 2025 | MIA 10, NE 38 | NE | W |
| NE@MIAW2 2025 | NE 33, MIA 27 | MIA | L |
| NE@MIAW12 2024 | NE 15, MIA 34 | MIA | W |
| MIA@NEW5 2024 | MIA 15, NE 10 | MIA | W |
| NE@MIAW8 2023 | NE 17, MIA 31 | MIA | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs NE
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Miami Dolphins at 60% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project MIA by 3.3. The market has MIA at -2.0.
Week 2 of the 2023 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
New England Patriots, MIA 10, NE 38 in Week 18 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA +0.136 against NE -0.136.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
