Ravens vs Bengals – Week 2 2023
BAL
CIN
BAL
AWAY
27@24
BAL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 2
2023 SEASON
Paycor Stadium · Cincinnati, OH
CIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 27, Cincinnati Bengals 24.
Going in, our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 Ravens.
Model confidence: CIN 66%Our line: CIN -5.5
ODDS
SPREAD
CIN -3.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CIN -5.5
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
CIN · MARKET WIN PROBABILITY
61%
DIFFERENCE
+5%
| SOURCE | BAL | CIN | CIN WIN % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +145 | -175 | 61.4% |
TEAM COMPARISON2023 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 2
+0.215Net EPA / play-0.044
+0.066 (5)Offense EPA / play-0.010 (12)
-0.149 (2)Defense EPA / play+0.034 (28)
47.4% (3)Offense success %44.0% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
CIN B-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CIN but BAL won. Projected margin was 5.5, the model overestimated by 8.5 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 6.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
BAL
Road Favorite 4-2 ATS (67%)
CIN
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2023 SEASON
CIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2023 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 2
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CINW15 2025 | BAL 24, CIN 0 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW13 2025 | CIN 32, BAL 14 | BAL | L |
| CIN@BALW10 2024 | CIN 34, BAL 35 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW5 2024 | BAL 41, CIN 38 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW11 2023 | CIN 20, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 2 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs CIN
Our model takes Cincinnati Bengals at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CIN by 5.5. The market has CIN at -3.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 27, CIN 24. Our model had favored Cincinnati Bengals at 66% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cincinnati Bengals at -3.5, meaning the book expects Cincinnati Bengals to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 2, the Baltimore Ravens were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Week 2 of the 2023 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 24, CIN 0 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2023 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.215 against CIN -0.044.
