Bengals vs Ravens – Week 10 2024
CIN
BAL
CIN
AWAY
34@35
BAL BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cincinnati Bengals 34, Baltimore Ravens 35.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Bengals, 3 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 70%Our line: BAL -7.1
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -7.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
70%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
+0.053Net EPA / play+0.269
+0.090 (7)Offense EPA / play+0.218 (1)
+0.037 (22)Defense EPA / play-0.051 (8)
47.2% (9)Offense success %50.0% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 7.1. Actual: 1. Off by 6.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CINW15 2025 | BAL 24, CIN 0 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW13 2025 | CIN 32, BAL 14 | BAL | L |
| BAL@CINW5 2024 | BAL 41, CIN 38 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW11 2023 | CIN 20, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW2 2023 | BAL 27, CIN 24 | CIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCIN vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 70% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project BAL by 7.1. The market has BAL at -6.0.
Baltimore Ravens won, CIN 34, BAL 35. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 70% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -6.0, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 10, the Cincinnati Bengals were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 6.4 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2024 season, THU 8:15 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 24, CIN 0 in Week 15 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Baltimore Ravens: CIN +0.053 against BAL +0.269.
