2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
CIN @ BAL – Week 10 2024
CIN
BAL
CIN
AWAY
34@35
BAL +1
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
BAL
HOME
TIER A
PICK: BAL
PICK WONATS ✗
Model confidence: BAL 70%Projected margin: 6.4
BAL
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
6.4
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 6.4. Actual: 1. Off by 5.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 5.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -270 | Won · +$0.42 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
CIN
road_favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)Road Favorite 5-1 ATS (83%)
BAL
road_favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)Road Favorite 6-2 ATS (75%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
69°F
WIND
6 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CIN
J.Chase
WR
403.0SEASON PPR
J.Burrow
QB
372.8SEASON PPR
C.Brown
RB
255.0SEASON PPR
BAL
L.Jackson
QB
430.4SEASON PPR
D.Henry
RB
336.4SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@CINW15 2025 | BAL 24, CIN 0 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW13 2025 | CIN 32, BAL 14 | BAL | L |
| BAL@CINW5 2024 | BAL 41, CIN 38 | BAL | W |
| CIN@BALW11 2023 | CIN 20, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
| BAL@CINW2 2023 | BAL 27, CIN 24 | CIN | L |
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES