Steelers vs Commanders – Week 10 2024
PIT
WAS
PIT
AWAY
28@27
PIT BY 1
FINAL · WEEK 10
2024 SEASON
Northwest Stadium · Landover, MD
WAS
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Pittsburgh Steelers 28, Washington Commanders 27.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Steelers, 4 Commanders.
Model confidence: PIT 59%Our line: PIT -3.0
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT +1.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -3.0
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 10
-0.016Net EPA / play+0.128
-0.034 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.139 (4)
-0.018 (10)Defense EPA / play+0.011 (15)
40.4% (27)Offense success %48.5% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected PIT by 3.0. Actual: 1 points. The model was within 2.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.5 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
WAS
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
57°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
WAS
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 10
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAS@PITW13 2020 | WAS 23, PIT 17 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 10 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPIT vs WAS
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PIT by 3.0. The market has PIT at +1.5.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, PIT 28, WAS 27. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at +1.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 10, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Washington Commanders were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 45.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.8, 0.2 below the market.
Week 10 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Washington Commanders, WAS 23, PIT 17 in Week 13 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Washington Commanders: PIT -0.016 against WAS +0.128.
