Commanders vs Steelers – Week 13 2020
WAS
PIT
WAS
AWAY
23@17
WAS BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 13
2020 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Washington Commanders 23, Pittsburgh Steelers 17.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 72% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 72%Our line: PIT -7.7
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -5.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -7.7
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
72%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
+0.023Net EPA / play+0.128
-0.067 (29)Offense EPA / play+0.010 (17)
-0.091 (3)Defense EPA / play-0.118 (2)
41.2% (29)Offense success %43.2% (25)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT A+-tier pick misses. WAS takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PIT but WAS won. Projected margin was 7.7, the model overestimated by 13.7 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 11.5 points.
COLD GAME
34°F at game time. Expect suppressed passing efficiency and lower scoring.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
WAS
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
PIT
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
34°F
WIND
10 MPH
COLD GAME
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
WAS
Terry McLaurin
WR
223.8 SEASON PPR
Antonio Gibson
RB
202.2 SEASON PPR
J.D. McKissic
RB
191.4 SEASON PPR
PIT
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Washington CommandersPASSING
Alex Smith1582 yd · 6 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
Antonio Gibson795 yd · 11 TD
J.D. McKissic365 yd · 1 TD
Peyton Barber258 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
Terry McLaurin87 rec · 1118 yd · 4 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@WASW10 2024 | PIT 28, WAS 27 | PIT | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSWAS vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 72% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project PIT by 7.7. The market has PIT at -5.5.
Washington Commanders won, WAS 23, PIT 17. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 72% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -5.5, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 5.5 points.
In Week 13, the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 43.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.1, 2.6 above the market.
Week 13 of the 2020 season, MON 5:00 PM.
Pittsburgh Steelers, PIT 28, WAS 27 in Week 10 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Pittsburgh Steelers: WAS +0.023 against PIT +0.128.
