Cowboys vs Ravens – Week 13 2020
DAL
BAL
DAL
AWAY
17@34
BAL BY 17
FINAL · WEEK 13
2020 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Dallas Cowboys 17, Baltimore Ravens 34.
Going in, our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Cowboys, 2 Ravens.
Model confidence: BAL 67%Our line: BAL -6.1
ODDS
SPREAD
BAL -8.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BAL -6.1
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BAL · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
67%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 13
-0.098Net EPA / play+0.180
-0.038 (25)Offense EPA / play+0.120 (5)
+0.060 (20)Defense EPA / play-0.060 (5)
45.7% (17)Offense success %45.8% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 6.1. Actual: 17. Off by 10.9 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DAL
Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
38°F
WIND
9 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Dallas CowboysPASSING
Andy Dalton2170 yd · 14 TD · 8 INT
RECEIVING
Amari Cooper92 rec · 1114 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 13
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@DALW3 2026 | BAL 34, DAL 31 | DAL | L |
| BAL@DALW3 2024 | BAL 28, DAL 25 | DAL | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 13 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDAL vs BAL
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 67% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BAL by 6.1. The market has BAL at -8.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, DAL 17, BAL 34. Our model had favored Baltimore Ravens at 67% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Baltimore Ravens at -8.5, meaning the book expects Baltimore Ravens to win by 8.5 points.
In Week 13, the Dallas Cowboys were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Baltimore Ravens were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.3, 0.7 below the market.
Week 13 of the 2020 season, TUE 8:05 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 34, DAL 31 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Baltimore Ravens: DAL -0.098 against BAL +0.180.
