BAL @ DAL – Week 3 2026
BAL
DAL
BAL
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 4:25 PM
WEEK 3 · 2026 SEASON
DAL
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 59%Projected margin: -0.1
BAL
PICK SIDE
-2.5
SPREAD
-0.1
PROJ MARGIN
-143
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.010Net EPA / play-0.070
+0.034Offense EPA / play+0.097
+0.024Defense EPA / play+0.167
44.6%Offense success %46.6%
44.1%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
BAL is our C-tier play in BAL @ DAL (Week 3, 2026). The model assigns 58.6% confidence and projects BAL by 0.1. Market spread sits at BAL -2.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -2.5 | BAL market line | |
| MODEL ML | -143 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
BAL
D.Henry
RB
279.5SEASON PPR
Z.Flowers
WR
243.3SEASON PPR
L.Jackson
QB
214.9SEASON PPR
DAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Baltimore RavensPASSING
L.Jackson2549 yd · 21 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
D.Henry1595 yd · 16 TD
L.Jackson349 yd · 2 TD
K.Mitchell341 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Z.Flowers86 rec · 1211 yd · 5 TD
M.Andrews48 rec · 422 yd · 5 TD
D.Hopkins22 rec · 330 yd · 2 TD
I.Likely27 rec · 307 yd · 1 TD
VS
2,549PASSyds4,552
2,285RUSH
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@DALW3 2024 | BAL 28, DAL 25 | DAL | L |
| DAL@BALW13 2020 | DAL 17, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs DAL
Who is favored in Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys?
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BAL by 0.1. The market has BAL at -2.5.
When do the Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys play?
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Who won the last Baltimore Ravens vs Dallas Cowboys game?
Baltimore Ravens, 28-25 in Week 3 of 2024.
Which team has been better, the Baltimore Ravens or the Dallas Cowboys?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.010 against DAL -0.070.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
