Ravens vs Cowboys – Week 3 2026
BAL
DAL
BAL
AWAY
34@31
BAL BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2026 SEASON
AT&T Stadium · Arlington, TX
DAL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Baltimore Ravens 34, Dallas Cowboys 31.
Going in, our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Ravens, 4 Cowboys.
Model confidence: DAL 50%Our line: DAL +0.0
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.168Net EPA / play-0.066
+0.151 (5)Offense EPA / play+0.127 (7)
-0.017 (16)Defense EPA / play+0.193 (32)
50.7% (2)Offense success %47.9% (6)
GAME NARRATIVE
DAL C-tier pick misses. BAL takes it.
MISSED
Model picked DAL but BAL won. Projected margin was 0.0, the model overestimated by 3.0 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
RETRACTABLE
TEMP
77°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@DALW3 2024 | BAL 28, DAL 25 | DAL | L |
| DAL@BALW13 2020 | DAL 17, BAL 34 | BAL | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSBAL vs DAL
Our model takes Dallas Cowboys at 50% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project BAL by 0.0. The market has DAL at +3.5.
Baltimore Ravens won, BAL 34, DAL 31. Our model had favored Dallas Cowboys at 50% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Dallas Cowboys at +3.5, meaning the book expects Dallas Cowboys to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 3, the Baltimore Ravens were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Dallas Cowboys were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 53.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.4, 5.1 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 28, DAL 25 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Baltimore Ravens: BAL +0.168 against DAL -0.066.
