NYJ @ DET – Week 3 2026
NYJ
DET
NYJ
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 3 · 2026 SEASON
DET
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: DET 78%Projected margin: -8.7
DET
PICK SIDE
-9.5
SPREAD
-8.7
PROJ MARGIN
-392
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.274Net EPA / play+0.091
-0.127Offense EPA / play+0.081
+0.147Defense EPA / play-0.010
40.7%Offense success %45.2%
45.6%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
A+-tier pick on DET at 78% confidence.
EPA EDGE
DET generates 0.081 EPA/play on offense. NYJ's defense allows 0.147. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
DET is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
DET goes for it on 4th down 27% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
RED ZONE
DET converts 92% in the red zone vs 65% for NYJ. That efficiency gap matters in close games.
DRIVE EFF
DET scores 2.2 points per drive vs 1.0 for NYJ. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in DET's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -9.5 | DET market line | |
| MODEL ML | -392 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
NYJ
B.Hall
RB
207.7SEASON PPR
J.Fields
QB
142.7SEASON PPR
G.Wilson
WR
99.5SEASON PPR
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
New York JetsPASSING
J.Fields1259 yd · 7 TD · 1 INT
RUSHING
B.Hall1065 yd · 4 TD
J.Fields383 yd · 4 TD
I.Davis236 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
G.Wilson36 rec · 395 yd · 4 TD
M.Taylor44 rec · 369 yd · 1 TD
B.Hall36 rec · 350 yd · 1 TD
A.Mitchell24 rec · 301 yd · 2 TD
VS
1,259PASSyds4,564
1,684RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@NYJW15 2022 | DET 20, NYJ 17 | DET | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs DET
Who is favored in New York Jets at Detroit Lions?
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 78% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project DET by 8.7. The market has DET at -9.5.
When do the New York Jets and Detroit Lions play?
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last New York Jets vs Detroit Lions game?
Detroit Lions, 20-17 in Week 15 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the New York Jets or the Detroit Lions?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Detroit Lions: NYJ -0.274 against DET +0.091.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
