Jets vs Lions – Week 3 2026
NYJ
DET
NYJ
AWAY
24@31
DET BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 3
2026 SEASON
Ford Field · Detroit, MI
DET
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Jets 24, Detroit Lions 31.
Going in, our model had favored Detroit Lions at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 4 Jets, 2 Lions.
Model confidence: DET 73%Our line: DET -8.1
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.037Net EPA / play+0.029
-0.025 (20)Offense EPA / play+0.180 (3)
-0.062 (5)Defense EPA / play+0.152 (31)
42.8% (16)Offense success %49.1% (4)
GAME NARRATIVE
DET A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected DET by 8.1. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 1.1 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DET
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| DET@NYJW15 2022 | DET 20, NYJ 17 | DET | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYJ vs DET
Our model takes Detroit Lions at 73% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project DET by 8.1. The market has DET at -6.5.
Detroit Lions won, NYJ 24, DET 31. Our model had favored Detroit Lions at 73% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Detroit Lions at -6.5, meaning the book expects Detroit Lions to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 3, the New York Jets were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Detroit Lions were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 48.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.0, 0.5 below the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Detroit Lions, DET 20, NYJ 17 in Week 15 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, New York Jets: NYJ +0.037 against DET +0.029.
