MIN @ TB – Week 3 2026
MIN
TB
MIN
AWAY
OUR PICK
@
SUN 4:05 PM
WEEK 3 · 2026 SEASON
TB
HOME
Model confidence: MIN 58%Projected margin: +0.1
MIN
PICK SIDE
+1.5
SPREAD
+0.1
PROJ MARGIN
+124
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.016Net EPA / play-0.022
-0.116Offense EPA / play-0.009
-0.100Defense EPA / play+0.013
42.6%Offense success %42.4%
41.0%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
WHY THIS PICK
MIN is our C-tier play in MIN @ TB (Week 3, 2026). The model assigns 58.5% confidence and projects TB by 0.1. Market spread sits at MIN +1.5.
MODEL CONVICTION
Split. The model leans this way with less conviction.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | +1.5 | MIN market line | |
| MODEL ML | +124 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
MIN
J.Jefferson
WR
201.5SEASON PPR
J.Addison
WR
135.1SEASON PPR
J.Mason
RB
128.9SEASON PPR
TB
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
J.McCarthy1632 yd · 11 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
J.Mason758 yd · 6 TD
A.Jones548 yd · 2 TD
J.McCarthy181 yd · 4 TD
RECEIVING
J.Jefferson84 rec · 1048 yd · 2 TD
J.Addison42 rec · 610 yd · 3 TD
J.Nailor29 rec · 444 yd · 4 TD
T.Hockenson51 rec · 438 yd · 3 TD
VS
1,632PASSyds3,693
1,487RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@MINW1 2023 | TB 20, MIN 17 | MIN | L |
| MIN@TBW14 2020 | MIN 14, TB 26 | MIN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs TB
Who is favored in Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 58% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project TB by 0.1. The market has MIN at +1.5.
When do the Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers play?
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Who won the last Minnesota Vikings vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers game?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 20-17 in Week 1 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the Minnesota Vikings or the Tampa Bay Buccaneers?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN -0.016 against TB -0.022.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
