Vikings vs Buccaneers – Week 3 2026
MIN
TB
MIN
AWAY
23@16
MIN BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 3
2026 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Minnesota Vikings 23, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Vikings, 2 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: MIN 66%Our line: MIN -5.4
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.111Net EPA / play-0.031
-0.099 (28)Offense EPA / play-0.088 (27)
-0.210 (1)Defense EPA / play-0.057 (7)
35.9% (32)Offense success %40.9% (23)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected MIN by 5.4. Actual: 7 points. The model was within 1.6 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
84°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Minnesota VikingsPASSING
K.Murray662 yd · 2 TD · 2 INT
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@MINW1 2023 | TB 20, MIN 17 | MIN | L |
| MIN@TBW14 2020 | MIN 14, TB 26 | MIN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIN vs TB
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 5.4. The market has MIN at -1.5.
Minnesota Vikings won, MIN 23, TB 16. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -1.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 1.5 points.
In Week 3, the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 42.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 43.9, 1.4 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 20, MIN 17 in Week 1 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Minnesota Vikings: MIN +0.111 against TB -0.031.
