Eagles vs Bears – Week 3 2026
PHI
CHI
PHI
AWAY
7@27
CHI BY 20
FINAL · WEEK 3
2026 SEASON
Soldier Field · Chicago, IL
CHI
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Philadelphia Eagles 7, Chicago Bears 27.
Going in, our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 3 Eagles, 3 Bears.
A midweek injury update switched the pick from the Bears (50%) to the Eagles (59%).
Model confidence: PHI 59%Our line: PHI -3.2
ODDS
SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.196Net EPA / play+0.008
-0.127 (30)Offense EPA / play+0.023 (12)
+0.069 (24)Defense EPA / play+0.015 (20)
36.2% (31)Offense success %46.1% (11)
GAME NARRATIVE
PHI C-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked PHI but CHI won. Projected margin was 3.2, the model overestimated by 23.2 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 23.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHI@PHIW13 2025 | CHI 24, PHI 15 | PHI | L |
| PHI@CHIW15 2022 | PHI 25, CHI 20 | PHI | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs CHI
Our model takes Philadelphia Eagles at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project PHI by 3.2. The market has PHI at -3.5.
Chicago Bears won, PHI 7, CHI 27. Our model had favored Philadelphia Eagles at 59% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Philadelphia Eagles at -3.5, meaning the book expects Philadelphia Eagles to win by 3.5 points.
In Week 3, the Philadelphia Eagles were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Chicago Bears were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 44.6, 3.1 above the market, which our board calls an over.
Week 3 of the 2026 season, MON 8:15 PM.
Chicago Bears, CHI 24, PHI 15 in Week 13 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Chicago Bears: PHI -0.196 against CHI +0.008.
