TEN @ NYG – Week 3 2026
TEN
NYG
TEN
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 3 · 2026 SEASON
NYG
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: NYG 66%Projected margin: -3.6
NYG
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-3.6
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.260Net EPA / play-0.075
-0.160Offense EPA / play+0.012
+0.100Defense EPA / play+0.087
37.4%Offense success %42.1%
45.1%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
NYG backed by epa edge at 66%.
EPA EDGE
NYG generates 0.012 EPA/play on offense. TEN's defense allows 0.100. That's a top-tier efficiency gap.
HIGH CONVICTION
NYG is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
NYG goes for it on 4th down 31% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
DRIVE EFF
NYG scores 1.8 points per drive vs 1.0 for TEN. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Multiple signals align in NYG's favor. One of the cleaner setups on the slate.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | NYG market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
TEN
C.Ward
QB
186.7SEASON PPR
T.Pollard
RB
185.8SEASON PPR
C.Dike
WR
128.1SEASON PPR
NYG
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Tennessee TitansPASSING
C.Ward3169 yd · 15 TD · 7 INT
RUSHING
T.Pollard1082 yd · 5 TD
T.Spears283 yd · 2 TD
C.Ward159 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
C.Okonkwo56 rec · 560 yd · 2 TD
E.Ayomanor41 rec · 515 yd · 4 TD
C.Dike48 rec · 423 yd · 4 TD
G.Helm44 rec · 357 yd · 2 TD
VS
3,169PASSyds2,272
1,524RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@TENW1 2022 | NYG 21, TEN 20 | TEN | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSTEN vs NYG
Who is favored in Tennessee Titans at New York Giants?
Our model takes New York Giants at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project NYG by 3.6. The market has NYG at -3.0.
When do the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants play?
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Tennessee Titans vs New York Giants game?
New York Giants, 21-20 in Week 1 of 2022.
Which team has been better, the Tennessee Titans or the New York Giants?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, New York Giants: TEN -0.260 against NYG -0.075.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
