LAC @ BUF – Week 3 2026
LAC
BUF
LAC
AWAY
@
SUN 1:00 PM
WEEK 3 · 2026 SEASON
BUF
HOME
OUR PICK
Model confidence: BUF 71%Projected margin: -6.0
BUF
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-6.0
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
TEAM COMPARISON2025 SEASON
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2025 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.059Net EPA / play+0.152
-0.024Offense EPA / play+0.136
-0.083Defense EPA / play-0.016
43.1%Offense success %48.5%
41.4%Defense success %
PROJECTED MARGINEVERY OUTCOME THE MODEL CONSIDERS LIKELY
GAME NARRATIVE
Model favors BUF (A-tier, 71% confidence).
HIGH CONVICTION
BUF is one of the model's highest-conviction calls. Its strongest calls hit at a significantly higher rate.
AGGRESSIVE 4TH
BUF goes for it on 4th down 32% of the time -- among the most aggressive in the NFL.
DRIVE EFF
BUF scores 2.5 points per drive vs 1.5 for LAC. That's a substantial offensive rhythm gap.
Net-positive signal profile for BUF. Grade: A.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML |
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2025 SEASON
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
286.9SEASON PPR
K.Allen
WR
182.7SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
180.9SEASON PPR
BUF
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2025 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
J.Herbert3727 yd · 26 TD · 13 INT
RUSHING
K.Vidal643 yd · 3 TD
O.Hampton545 yd · 4 TD
J.Herbert498 yd · 2 TD
RECEIVING
L.McConkey66 rec · 789 yd · 6 TD
K.Allen81 rec · 777 yd · 4 TD
Q.Johnston51 rec · 735 yd · 8 TD
O.Gadsden49 rec · 664 yd · 3 TD
VS
3,727PASSyds3,668
1,686RUSHyds
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@LACW16 2023 | BUF 24, LAC 22 | BUF | W |
| LAC@BUFW12 2020 | LAC 17, BUF 27 | BUF | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs BUF
Who is favored in Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills?
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 71% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project BUF by 6.0. The market has BUF at -3.0.
When do the Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills play?
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Who won the last Los Angeles Chargers vs Buffalo Bills game?
Buffalo Bills, 24-22 in Week 16 of 2023.
Which team has been better, the Los Angeles Chargers or the Buffalo Bills?
By net EPA per play over the 2025 season, Buffalo Bills: LAC +0.059 against BUF +0.152.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake — plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
