Chargers vs Bills – Week 3 2026
LAC
BUF
LAC
AWAY
16@24
BUF BY 8
FINAL · WEEK 3
2026 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 16, Buffalo Bills 24.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 6 Chargers, 2 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 75%Our line: BUF -9.3
ODDS
TEAM COMPARISON2026 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.150Net EPA / play+0.077
-0.207 (32)Offense EPA / play+0.210 (1)
-0.057 (6)Defense EPA / play+0.134 (30)
37.8% (29)Offense success %49.1% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected BUF by 9.3. Actual: 8 points. The model was within 1.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 6 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 1.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
12 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
CLOSING LINE VALUE
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2026 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2026 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BUF@LACW16 2023 | BUF 24, LAC 22 | BUF | W |
| LAC@BUFW12 2020 | LAC 17, BUF 27 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 75% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BUF by 9.3. The market has BUF at -7.0.
Buffalo Bills won, LAC 16, BUF 24. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 75% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -7.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 7.0 points.
In Week 3, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 6 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 49.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 48.0, 1.5 below the market, which our board calls an under.
Week 3 of the 2026 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, BUF 24, LAC 22 in Week 16 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2026 season, Buffalo Bills: LAC -0.150 against BUF +0.077.
