Chargers vs Bills – Week 12 2020
LAC
BUF
LAC
AWAY
17@27
BUF BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 12
2020 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 17, Buffalo Bills 27.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Chargers, 2 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 64%Our line: BUF -4.8
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -4.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -4.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
64%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.001Net EPA / play+0.147
+0.027 (15)Offense EPA / play+0.164 (4)
+0.026 (15)Defense EPA / play+0.017 (12)
43.2% (24)Offense success %50.2% (2)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 4.8. Actual: 10. Off by 5.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 5.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BUF
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
48°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Los Angeles ChargersPASSING
Justin Herbert4336 yd · 31 TD · 10 INT
RUSHING
Austin Ekeler530 yd · 1 TD
Joshua Kelley354 yd · 2 TD
Kalen Ballage290 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC@BUFW3 2026 | LAC 16, BUF 24 | BUF | W |
| BUF@LACW16 2023 | BUF 24, LAC 22 | BUF | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 64% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project BUF by 4.8. The market has BUF at -4.5.
Buffalo Bills won, LAC 17, BUF 27. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 64% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -4.5, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 4.5 points.
In Week 12, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 51.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.4, 3.6 below the market.
Week 12 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Buffalo Bills, LAC 16, BUF 24 in Week 3 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Buffalo Bills: LAC +0.001 against BUF +0.147.
