49ers vs Rams – Week 12 2020
SF
LA
SF
AWAY
23@20
SF BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 12
2020 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 23, Los Angeles Rams 20.
Going in, our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 4 49ers, 1 Rams.
Model confidence: LA 63%Our line: LA -4.6
ODDS
SPREAD
LA -5.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
LA -4.6
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
LA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
63%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 12
+0.042Net EPA / play+0.162
+0.008 (18)Offense EPA / play-0.015 (23)
-0.034 (8)Defense EPA / play-0.177 (1)
46.0% (14)Offense success %44.5% (20)
GAME NARRATIVE
LA B-tier pick misses. SF takes it.
MISSED
Model picked LA but SF won. Projected margin was 4.6, the model overestimated by 7.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 7 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
LA
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
SF
Brandon Aiyuk
WR
184.5 SEASON PPR
Jeff Wilson
RB
142.3 SEASON PPR
Kendrick Bourne
WR
129.7 SEASON PPR
LA
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
San Francisco 49ersPASSING
Nick Mullens2437 yd · 12 TD · 12 INT
RUSHING
Jeff Wilson600 yd · 7 TD
Raheem Mostert521 yd · 2 TD
Jerick McKinnon319 yd · 5 TD
RECEIVING
Brandon Aiyuk60 rec · 748 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 12
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@LAW1 2026 | SF 27, LA 7 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW10 2025 | LA 42, SF 26 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW5 2025 | SF 26, LA 23 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW15 2024 | LA 12, SF 6 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW3 2024 | SF 24, LA 27 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 12 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs LA
Our model takes Los Angeles Rams at 63% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project LA by 4.6. The market has LA at -5.0.
San Francisco 49ers won, SF 23, LA 20. Our model had favored Los Angeles Rams at 63% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Los Angeles Rams at -5.0, meaning the book expects Los Angeles Rams to win by 5.0 points.
In Week 12, the San Francisco 49ers were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Rams were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.6, 2.1 above the market.
Week 12 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 27, LA 7 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Los Angeles Rams: SF +0.042 against LA +0.162.
