2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
SF @ LA – Week 3 2024
SF
LA
SF
AWAY
24@27
LA +3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
LA
HOME
TIER B
PICK: SF
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: SF 62%Projected margin: -1.6
SF
PICK SIDE
-6.0
SPREAD
-1.6
PROJ MARGIN
-237
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick misses. LA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but LA won. Projected margin was 1.6 -- the model overestimated by 4.6 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.0 | SF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -237 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -258 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
SF
B.Purdy
QB
266.9SEASON PPR
G.Kittle
TE
236.6SEASON PPR
J.Jennings
WR
210.5SEASON PPR
LA
K.Williams
RB
272.1SEASON PPR
M.Stafford
QB
214.6SEASON PPR
P.Nacua
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| LA@SFW10 2025 | LA 42, SF 26 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW5 2025 | SF 26, LA 23 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW15 2024 | LA 12, SF 6 | LA | W |
| LA@SFW18 2023 | LA 21, SF 20 | SF | L |
| SF@LAW2 2023 | SF 30, LA 23 | SF | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES