49ers vs Rams – Week 3 2024
SF
LA
SF
AWAY
24@27
LA BY 3
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
SoFi Stadium · Inglewood, CA
LA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: San Francisco 49ers 24, Los Angeles Rams 27.
Going in, our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 49ers, 2 Rams.
Model confidence: SF 62%Our line: SF -4.1
ODDS
SPREAD
SF -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SF -4.1
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
62%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.028Net EPA / play-0.030
+0.069 (10)Offense EPA / play+0.014 (16)
+0.041 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.044 (25)
46.1% (11)Offense success %46.8% (10)
GAME NARRATIVE
SF B-tier pick misses. LA takes it.
MISSED
Model picked SF but LA won. Projected margin was 4.1, the model overestimated by 7.1 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 9.0 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
SF
road_favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Road Favorite 1-4 ATS (20%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
LA
road_favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)home_underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)Road Favorite 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Home Underdog 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SF@LAW1 2026 | SF 27, LA 7 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW10 2025 | LA 42, SF 26 | LA | W |
| SF@LAW5 2025 | SF 26, LA 23 | LA | L |
| LA@SFW15 2024 | LA 12, SF 6 | LA | W |
| LA@SFW18 2023 | LA 21, SF 20 | SF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSSF vs LA
Our model takes San Francisco 49ers at 62% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project SF by 4.1. The market has SF at -6.0.
Los Angeles Rams won, SF 24, LA 27. Our model had favored San Francisco 49ers at 62% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has San Francisco 49ers at -6.0, meaning the book expects San Francisco 49ers to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 3, the San Francisco 49ers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Los Angeles Rams were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 1.2 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:25 PM.
San Francisco 49ers, SF 27, LA 7 in Week 1 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, San Francisco 49ers: SF +0.028 against LA -0.030.
