Chargers vs Steelers – Week 3 2024
LAC
PIT
LAC
AWAY
10@20
PIT BY 10
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
Acrisure Stadium · Pittsburgh, PA
PIT
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Los Angeles Chargers 10, Pittsburgh Steelers 20.
Going in, our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Chargers, 2 Steelers.
Model confidence: PIT 66%Our line: PIT -5.6
ODDS
SPREAD
PIT -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
PIT -5.6
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
PIT · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
66%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.100Net EPA / play-0.016
+0.039 (12)Offense EPA / play-0.034 (20)
-0.061 (7)Defense EPA / play-0.018 (10)
42.0% (20)Offense success %40.4% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 5.6. Actual: 10. Off by 4.4 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@LACW10 2025 | PIT 10, LAC 25 | LAC | W |
| PIT@LACW11 2021 | PIT 37, LAC 41 | PIT | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSLAC vs PIT
Our model takes Pittsburgh Steelers at 66% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project PIT by 5.6. The market has PIT at -3.0.
Pittsburgh Steelers won, LAC 10, PIT 20. Our model had favored Pittsburgh Steelers at 66% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers at -3.0, meaning the book expects Pittsburgh Steelers to win by 3.0 points.
In Week 3, the Los Angeles Chargers were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Pittsburgh Steelers were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 36.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.5, 10.5 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Los Angeles Chargers, PIT 10, LAC 25 in Week 10 of 2025.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Los Angeles Chargers: LAC +0.100 against PIT -0.016.
