2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
LAC @ PIT – Week 3 2024
LAC
PIT
LAC
AWAY
10@20
PIT +10
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
PIT
HOME
TIER B
PICK: PIT
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: PIT 66%Projected margin: 4.3
PIT
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
4.3
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
PIT B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked PIT. Projected margin: 4.3. Actual: 10. Off by 5.7 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 4 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 7.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | PIT market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -148 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
LAC
divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)road_favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)Divisional 6-0 ATS (100%)Road Favorite 6-1 ATS (86%)
PIT
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
72°F
WIND
2 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
LAC
J.Herbert
QB
285.4SEASON PPR
L.McConkey
WR
240.9SEASON PPR
J.Dobbins
RB
191.8SEASON PPR
PIT
N.Harris
RB
204.6SEASON PPR
R.Wilson
QB
172.8SEASON PPR
P.Freiermuth
TE
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| PIT@LACW10 2025 | PIT 10, LAC 25 | LAC | W |
| PIT@LACW11 2021 | PIT 37, LAC 41 | PIT | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES