Dolphins vs Seahawks – Week 3 2024
MIA
SEA
MIA
AWAY
3@24
SEA BY 21
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
Lumen Field · Seattle, WA
SEA
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Miami Dolphins 3, Seattle Seahawks 24.
Going in, our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 3 Dolphins, 4 Seahawks.
Model confidence: SEA 59%Our line: SEA -2.9
ODDS
SPREAD
SEA -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
SEA -2.9
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
SEA · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
59%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.017Net EPA / play-0.018
-0.039 (21)Offense EPA / play-0.030 (19)
-0.022 (9)Defense EPA / play-0.012 (11)
44.3% (15)Offense success %43.9% (16)
GAME NARRATIVE
SEA C-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked SEA. Projected margin: 2.9. Actual: 21. Off by 18.1 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 2 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 17.0 points.
Another data point for the model. C-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
MIA
No noteworthy trends
SEA
home_underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
64°F
WIND
2 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEA@MIAW4 2020 | SEA 31, MIA 23 | SEA | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSMIA vs SEA
Our model takes Seattle Seahawks at 59% win probability, a Tier C pick. The margin models project SEA by 2.9. The market has SEA at -4.0.
Seattle Seahawks won, MIA 3, SEA 24. Our model had favored Seattle Seahawks at 59% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Seattle Seahawks at -4.0, meaning the book expects Seattle Seahawks to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 3, the Miami Dolphins were without 3 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Seattle Seahawks were without 4 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 41.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.1, 3.6 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2024 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Seattle Seahawks, SEA 31, MIA 23 in Week 4 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Miami Dolphins: MIA -0.017 against SEA -0.018.
