Broncos vs Buccaneers – Week 3 2024
DEN
TB
DEN
AWAY
26@7
DEN BY 19
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
Raymond James Stadium · Tampa, FL
TB
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Denver Broncos 26, Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7.
Going in, our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 2 Broncos, 5 Buccaneers.
Model confidence: TB 68%Our line: TB -6.3
ODDS
SPREAD
TB -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
TB -6.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
TB · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.138Net EPA / play+0.115
+0.020 (14)Offense EPA / play+0.130 (5)
-0.118 (1)Defense EPA / play+0.015 (17)
42.7% (17)Offense success %49.5% (3)
GAME NARRATIVE
TB B-tier pick misses. DEN takes it.
MISSED
Model picked TB but DEN won. Projected margin was 6.3, the model overestimated by 25.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 25.0 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
DEN
divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
TB
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
85°F
WIND
6 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB@DENW3 2020 | TB 28, DEN 10 | DEN | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSDEN vs TB
Our model takes Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project TB by 6.3. The market has TB at -6.0.
Denver Broncos won, DEN 26, TB 7. Our model had favored Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers at -6.0, meaning the book expects Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 3, the Denver Broncos were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers were without 5 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 40.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 6.3 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, TB 28, DEN 10 in Week 3 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Denver Broncos: DEN +0.138 against TB +0.115.
