2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
KC @ ATL – Week 3 2024
KC
ATL
KC
AWAY
22@17
KC +5
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
ATL
HOME
TIER B
PICK: KC
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: KC 65%Projected margin: -3.0
KC
PICK SIDE
-3.0
SPREAD
-3.0
PROJ MARGIN
-154
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 3.0. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 2.0 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -3.0 | KC market line | |
| MODEL ML | -154 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -170 | Won · +$0.65 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
KC
P.Mahomes
QB
283.0SEASON PPR
T.Kelce
TE
195.4SEASON PPR
X.Worthy
WR
187.2SEASON PPR
ATL
B.Robinson
RB
341.7SEASON PPR
D.London
WR
280.8SEASON PPR
D.Mooney
WR
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@KCW16 2020 | ATL 14, KC 17 | KC | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES