Chiefs vs Falcons – Week 3 2024
KC
ATL
KC
AWAY
22@17
KC BY 5
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Atlanta, GA
ATL
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Kansas City Chiefs 22, Atlanta Falcons 17.
Going in, our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
Model confidence: KC 65%Our line: KC -5.3
ODDS
SPREAD
KC -3.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
KC -5.3
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
KC · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
65%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
+0.059Net EPA / play-0.027
+0.070 (9)Offense EPA / play+0.034 (13)
+0.011 (16)Defense EPA / play+0.061 (27)
47.6% (6)Offense success %48.1% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
KC B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
NAILED IT
Model projected KC by 5.3. Actual: 5 points. The model was within 0.3 points of the real margin.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 2.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
KC
divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
ATL
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@KCW16 2020 | ATL 14, KC 17 | KC | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSKC vs ATL
Our model takes Kansas City Chiefs at 65% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project KC by 5.3. The market has KC at -3.0.
Kansas City Chiefs won, KC 22, ATL 17. Our model had favored Kansas City Chiefs at 65% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Kansas City Chiefs at -3.0, meaning the book expects Kansas City Chiefs to win by 3.0 points.
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 45.7, 0.3 below the market.
Week 3 of the 2024 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
Kansas City Chiefs, ATL 14, KC 17 in Week 16 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Kansas City Chiefs: KC +0.059 against ATL -0.027.
