Jaguars vs Bills – Week 3 2024
JAX
BUF
JAX
AWAY
10@47
BUF BY 37
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
Highmark Stadium · Orchard Park, NY
BUF
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Jacksonville Jaguars 10, Buffalo Bills 47.
Going in, our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 1 Jaguars, 2 Bills.
Model confidence: BUF 77%Our line: BUF -9.8
ODDS
SPREAD
BUF -4.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
BUF -9.8
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
BUF · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.149Net EPA / play+0.197
-0.020 (18)Offense EPA / play+0.189 (2)
+0.129 (31)Defense EPA / play-0.009 (12)
41.5% (21)Offense success %47.5% (7)
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 9.8. Actual: 37. Off by 27.2 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 33.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
5 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@BUFW5 2023 | JAX 25, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| BUF@JAXW9 2021 | BUF 6, JAX 9 | BUF | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs BUF
Our model takes Buffalo Bills at 77% win probability, a Tier A+ pick. The margin models project BUF by 9.8. The market has BUF at -4.0.
Buffalo Bills won, JAX 10, BUF 47. Our model had favored Buffalo Bills at 77% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Buffalo Bills at -4.0, meaning the book expects Buffalo Bills to win by 4.0 points.
In Week 3, the Jacksonville Jaguars were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Buffalo Bills were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 46.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.8, 0.3 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2024 season, MON 7:30 PM.
Jacksonville Jaguars, JAX 25, BUF 20 in Week 5 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Buffalo Bills: JAX -0.149 against BUF +0.197.
