2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
JAX @ BUF – Week 3 2024
JAX
BUF
JAX
AWAY
10@47
BUF +37
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
BUF
HOME
TIER A+
PICK: BUF
PICK WONATS ✓
Model confidence: BUF 77%Projected margin: 9.9
BUF
PICK SIDE
-4.0
SPREAD
9.9
PROJ MARGIN
-178
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
BUF A+-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BUF. Projected margin: 9.9. Actual: 37. Off by 27.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 33.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A+-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -4.0 | BUF market line | |
| MODEL ML | -178 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -218 | Won · +$0.56 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
JAX
divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)home_underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)Home Underdog 4-1 ATS (80%)
BUF
road_favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)Road Favorite 3-2 ATS (60%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
68°F
WIND
5 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
JAX
B.Thomas
WR
284.0SEASON PPR
T.Lawrence
QB
145.7SEASON PPR
T.Etienne
RB
130.2SEASON PPR
BUF
J.Allen
QB
372.3SEASON PPR
J.Cook
RB
266.7SEASON PPR
K.Shakir
WR
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| JAX@BUFW5 2023 | JAX 25, BUF 20 | BUF | L |
| BUF@JAXW9 2021 | BUF 6, JAX 9 | BUF | L |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES