GB @ TEN – Week 3 2024
GB
TEN
GB
AWAY
30@14
GB BY 16
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
Nissan Stadium · Nashville, TN
TEN
HOME
Model confidence: GB 72%Our line: GB -8.0
GB
PICK SIDE
+3.0
MARKET SPREAD
-8.0
OUR LINE
-260
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2024 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
+0.146Net EPA / play-0.146
+0.079Offense EPA / play-0.116
-0.067Defense EPA / play+0.030
44.9%Offense success %39.9%
44.6%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
GB A-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked GB. Projected margin: 8.0. Actual: 16. Off by 8.0 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 3 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 19.0 points.
Another data point for the model. A-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | GB | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +136 | -162 |
| Our fair price | -260 | +260 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD GB +3.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$1.54
OUR NUMBER
72%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
41%
DIFFERENCE
+32%
Both figures are for GB. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
GB
road_favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)Road Favorite 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-5 ATS (0%)
TEN
divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
87°F
WIND
7 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
GB
J.Jacobs
RB
293.1 SEASON PPR
J.Love
QB
233.9 SEASON PPR
J.Reed
WR
197.0 SEASON PPR
TEN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Green Bay PackersPASSING
J.Love3389 yd · 25 TD · 11 INT
RUSHING
J.Jacobs1329 yd · 15 TD
E.Wilson502 yd · 4 TD
C.Brooks183 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
J.Reed55 rec · 857 yd · 6 TD
T.Kraft50 rec · 707 yd · 7 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| TEN@GBW11 2022 | TEN 27, GB 17 | TEN | W |
| TEN@GBW16 2020 | TEN 14, GB 40 | GB | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSGB vs TEN
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Green Bay Packers at 72% win probability, a Tier A pick. The margin models project GB by 8.0. The market has GB at +3.0.
The model projects 46.0 combined points. The market total is 37.0.
Week 3 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Tennessee Titans, TEN 27, GB 17 in Week 11 of 2022.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, Green Bay Packers: GB +0.146 against TEN -0.146.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
