2025 SEASON FINAL · PICKS RETURN SEPTEMBER 2026
NYG @ CLE – Week 3 2024
NYG
CLE
NYG
AWAY
21@15
NYG +6
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
CLE
HOME
TIER B
PICK: CLE
PICK LOSTATS ✗
Model confidence: CLE 68%Projected margin: 6.3
CLE
PICK SIDE
-6.5
SPREAD
6.3
PROJ MARGIN
-255
MODEL ML
—
LIVE ML
MISSED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but NYG won. Projected margin was 6.3 -- the model overestimated by 12.3 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
BETTING LINE
| FIELD | VALUE | NOTES | |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPREAD | -6.5 | CLE market line | |
| MODEL ML | -255 | Our fair-value moneyline | |
| LIVE ML | — | Last observed market ML | |
| RESULT | -270 | Lost · -$1.00 |
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
4 MPH
WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
NYG
M.Nabers
WR
273.6SEASON PPR
W.Robinson
WR
182.7SEASON PPR
T.Tracy
RB
182.3SEASON PPR
CLE
J.Jeudy
WR
240.9SEASON PPR
D.Njoku
TE
148.5SEASON PPR
J.Ford
RB
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@NYGW15 2020 | CLE 20, NYG 6 | CLE | W |
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES