Giants vs Browns – Week 3 2024
NYG
CLE
NYG
AWAY
21@15
NYG BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 3
2024 SEASON
Huntington Bank Field · Cleveland, OH
CLE
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: New York Giants 21, Cleveland Browns 15.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Giants, 2 Browns.
Model confidence: CLE 68%Our line: CLE -6.4
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -6.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -6.4
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
68%
TEAM COMPARISON2024 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 3
-0.170Net EPA / play-0.201
-0.107 (28)Offense EPA / play-0.183 (32)
+0.063 (28)Defense EPA / play+0.017 (18)
40.5% (25)Offense success %37.0% (32)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick misses. NYG takes it.
MISSED
Model picked CLE but NYG won. Projected margin was 6.4, the model overestimated by 12.4 points.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 12.5 points.
DRAMATIC
The win probability swung past 50% 1 time. A competitive game throughout.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
NYG
home_underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)Home Underdog 3-6 ATS (33%)Divisional 1-5 ATS (17%)
CLE
divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)home_underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)Home Underdog 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
76°F
WIND
4 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2024 SEASON
CLE
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2024 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 3
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| CLE@NYGW15 2020 | CLE 20, NYG 6 | CLE | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 3 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSNYG vs CLE
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 68% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 6.4. The market has CLE at -6.5.
New York Giants won, NYG 21, CLE 15. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 68% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -6.5, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 6.5 points.
In Week 3, the New York Giants were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Cleveland Browns were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 38.0 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.7, 8.7 above the market.
Week 3 of the 2024 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Cleveland Browns, CLE 20, NYG 6 in Week 15 of 2020.
By net EPA per play over the 2024 season, New York Giants: NYG -0.170 against CLE -0.201.
