Browns vs Giants – Week 15 2020
CLE
NYG
CLE
AWAY
20@6
CLE BY 14
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
MetLife Stadium · East Rutherford, NJ
NYG
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Cleveland Browns 20, New York Giants 6.
Going in, our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
Out or doubtful: 2 Browns, 1 Giants.
Model confidence: CLE 58%Our line: CLE -2.7
ODDS
SPREAD
CLE -6.0
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
CLE -2.7
OUR LINE
COVERED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
CLE · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
58%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
+0.011Net EPA / play-0.086
+0.088 (10)Offense EPA / play-0.056 (27)
+0.077 (23)Defense EPA / play+0.031 (16)
46.6% (9)Offense success %41.6% (27)
GAME NARRATIVE
CLE B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked CLE. Projected margin: 2.7. Actual: 14. Off by 11.3 points but directionally right.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 8.0 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CLE
Windy 2-3 ATS (40%)Divisional 0-6 ATS (0%)
NYG
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
36°F
WIND
0 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 1 MEETING
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| NYG@CLEW3 2024 | NYG 21, CLE 15 | CLE | L |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCLE vs NYG
Our model takes Cleveland Browns at 58% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project CLE by 2.7. The market has CLE at -6.0.
Cleveland Browns won, CLE 20, NYG 6. Our model had favored Cleveland Browns at 58% win probability, and the pick won.
The market has Cleveland Browns at -6.0, meaning the book expects Cleveland Browns to win by 6.0 points.
In Week 15, the Cleveland Browns were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful) and the New York Giants were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 44.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 46.9, 2.4 above the market.
Week 15 of the 2020 season, SUN 8:20 PM.
New York Giants, NYG 21, CLE 15 in Week 3 of 2024.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Cleveland Browns: CLE +0.011 against NYG -0.086.
