JAX @ BAL – Week 15 2020
JAX
BAL
JAX
AWAY
14@40
BAL BY 26
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
M&T Bank Stadium · Baltimore, MD
BAL
HOME
Model confidence: BAL 75%Our line: BAL -8.9
BAL
PICK SIDE
-13.0
MARKET SPREAD
-8.9
OUR LINE
-294
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.204Net EPA / play+0.180
-0.059Offense EPA / play+0.120
+0.145Defense EPA / play-0.060
41.5%Offense success %45.8%
48.4%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
BAL S-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked BAL. Projected margin: 8.9. Actual: 26. Off by 17.1 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 13.0 points.
Another data point for the model. S-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | JAX | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +564 | -746 |
| Our fair price | +294 | -294 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD BAL -13.0 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.15
OUR NUMBER
75%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
85%
DIFFERENCE
-11%
Both figures are for BAL. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
JAX
Divisional 4-2 ATS (67%)
BAL
Divisional 5-1 ATS (83%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
OUTDOOR
TEMP
39°F
WIND
3 MPH
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
JAX
James Robinson
RB
250.4 SEASON PPR
Gardner Minshew
QB
160.7 SEASON PPR
Laviska Shenault Jr.
WR
157.1 SEASON PPR
BAL
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Jacksonville JaguarsPASSING
Gardner Minshew2259 yd · 16 TD · 5 INT
RUSHING
James Robinson1070 yd · 7 TD
Gardner Minshew153 yd · 1 TD
Dare Ogunbowale145 yd · 0 TD
RECEIVING
DJ Chark53 rec · 706 yd · 5 TD
Keelan Cole55 rec · 642 yd · 5 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| BAL@JAXW15 2023 | BAL 23, JAX 7 | BAL | W |
| BAL@JAXW12 2022 | BAL 27, JAX 28 | BAL | L |
COMMON QUESTIONSJAX vs BAL
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Baltimore Ravens at 75% win probability, a Tier S pick. The margin models project BAL by 8.9. The market has BAL at -13.0.
The model projects 47.4 combined points. The market total is 49.5.
Week 15 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Baltimore Ravens, BAL 23, JAX 7 in Week 15 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Baltimore Ravens: JAX -0.204 against BAL +0.180.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the EdgeWEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
