PHI @ ARI – Week 15 2020
PHI
ARI
PHI
AWAY
26@33
ARI BY 7
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
State Farm Stadium · Glendale, AZ
ARI
HOME
Model confidence: ARI 59%Our line: ARI -3.0
ARI
PICK SIDE
-6.5
MARKET SPREAD
-3.0
OUR LINE
-143
OUR ML
—
LIVE ML
COVERED
VS SPREAD
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
EFFICIENCY SPLIT2020 SEASON · SIDE BY SIDE
-0.107Net EPA / play+0.031
-0.089Offense EPA / play+0.038
+0.018Defense EPA / play+0.007
40.6%Offense success %45.4%
42.7%Defense success %
GAME NARRATIVE
ARI B-tier pick hits. Model was directionally correct.
CORRECT
Model correctly picked ARI. Projected margin: 3.0. Actual: 7. Off by 4.0 points but directionally right.
COVERED
This pick covered the spread by 0.5 points.
Another data point for the model. B-tier picks continue to track.
BETTING LINE
| SOURCE | PHI | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Closing line | +226 | -259 |
| Our fair price | +143 | -143 |
Our fair price carries no vig, so it is what the bet is worth, not what anyone will offer you.
SPREAD ARI -6.5 · nflverse market average, not one book's number
RESULT Won · +$0.39
OUR NUMBER
59%
MARKET, VIG REMOVED
70%
DIFFERENCE
-11%
Both figures are for ARI. The market number strips the margin out first, so the two sides are measured the same way.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
PHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
ARI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
PHI
Carson Wentz
QB
198.4 SEASON PPR
Miles Sanders
RB
170.4 SEASON PPR
Greg Ward
WR
133.1 SEASON PPR
ARI
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Philadelphia EaglesPASSING
Carson Wentz2620 yd · 16 TD · 15 INT
RUSHING
Miles Sanders867 yd · 6 TD
Boston Scott374 yd · 1 TD
Jalen Hurts354 yd · 3 TD
RECEIVING
Travis Fulgham38 rec · 539 yd · 4 TD
Dallas Goedert46 rec · 524 yd · 3 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 2 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| ARI@PHIW17 2023 | ARI 35, PHI 31 | PHI | L |
| PHI@ARIW5 2022 | PHI 20, ARI 17 | PHI | W |
COMMON QUESTIONSPHI vs ARI
QUESTIONS
Our model takes Arizona Cardinals at 59% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project ARI by 3.0. The market has ARI at -6.5.
The model projects 47.2 combined points. The market total is 49.5.
Week 15 of the 2020 season, SUN 4:05 PM.
Arizona Cardinals, ARI 35, PHI 31 in Week 17 of 2023.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Arizona Cardinals: PHI -0.107 against ARI +0.031.
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
