Bears vs Vikings – Week 15 2020
CHI
MIN
CHI
AWAY
33@27
CHI BY 6
FINAL · WEEK 15
2020 SEASON
U.S. Bank Stadium · Minneapolis, MN
MIN
HOME
THE SHORT ANSWER
Final: Chicago Bears 33, Minnesota Vikings 27.
Going in, our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
Out or doubtful: 1 Bears, 2 Vikings.
Model confidence: MIN 60%Our line: MIN -3.3
ODDS
SPREAD
MIN -2.5
MARKET SPREAD · MARKET AVG
MIN -3.3
OUR LINE
MISSED
VS SPREAD
MONEYLINE
MIN · OUR WIN PROBABILITY
60%
TEAM COMPARISON2020 SEASON · EFFICIENCY, SCORING, TENDENCIES · RANK IN PARENTHESES · FULL-SEASON NUMBERS, NOT AS OF WEEK 15
-0.033Net EPA / play-0.003
-0.028 (24)Offense EPA / play+0.095 (8)
+0.006 (10)Defense EPA / play+0.098 (27)
43.6% (22)Offense success %49.2% (5)
GAME NARRATIVE
MIN B-tier pick misses. CHI takes it.
MISSED
Model picked MIN but CHI won. Projected margin was 3.3, the model overestimated by 9.3 points.
INSTANT CLASSIC
The win probability swung past 50% 5 times. One of the wildest games of the week.
ATS MISS
Missed the spread by 8.5 points.
Every model misses. The edge comes from the aggregate, not any single game.
SITUATIONAL TRENDS
Historical splits, shown for context only. We tested them: picking the situations that beat break-even in training goes 770–760 (50.3%) out of sample, so they are not a betting signal and are not coloured like one.
CHI
Divisional 2-4 ATS (33%)
MIN
No noteworthy trends
GAME WEATHER
VENUE
DOME
CLIMATE CONTROLLED
IN-GAME WIN PROBABILITY
TOP FANTASY SCORERS2020 SEASON
CHI
264.8 SEASON PPR
Allen Robinson
WR
262.9 SEASON PPR
Mitchell Trubisky
QB
153.7 SEASON PPR
MIN
DEEP MATCHUP DATA2020 PRODUCTION BY UNIT
Chicago BearsPASSING
Mitchell Trubisky2055 yd · 16 TD · 8 INT
RUSHING
David Montgomery1070 yd · 8 TD
Cordarrelle Patterson232 yd · 1 TD
Mitchell Trubisky195 yd · 1 TD
RECEIVING
Allen Robinson102 rec · 1250 yd · 6 TD
INJURY REPORTWEEK 15
HEAD-TO-HEAD HISTORYLAST 5 MEETINGS
| GAME | SCORE | PICK | RESULT |
|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@CHIW2 2026 | MIN 9, CHI 3 | CHI | L |
| CHI@MINW11 2025 | CHI 19, MIN 17 | CHI | W |
| MIN@CHIW1 2025 | MIN 27, CHI 24 | MIN | W |
| CHI@MINW15 2024 | CHI 12, MIN 30 | MIN | W |
| MIN@CHIW12 2024 | MIN 30, CHI 27 | MIN | W |
WHAT PRO ADDS
Every stat on this page is free, and so is the model's pick for this game. Pro is the separate question of which games we would actually bet, and at what stake, plus player props, unit sizing, and the full profit-and-loss ledger.
See the Edge
WEEK 15 · OTHER GAMES
Our pick and its win probability, or the final score once the game is played.
COMMON QUESTIONSCHI vs MIN
Our model takes Minnesota Vikings at 60% win probability, a Tier B pick. The margin models project MIN by 3.3. The market has MIN at -2.5.
Chicago Bears won, CHI 33, MIN 27. Our model had favored Minnesota Vikings at 60% win probability, and the pick lost.
The market has Minnesota Vikings at -2.5, meaning the book expects Minnesota Vikings to win by 2.5 points.
In Week 15, the Chicago Bears were without 1 player (Out or Doubtful) and the Minnesota Vikings were without 2 players (Out or Doubtful).
Sportsbooks have this game at 47.5 combined points. NoPunt's model projects 47.3, 0.2 below the market.
Week 15 of the 2020 season, SUN 1:00 PM.
Minnesota Vikings, MIN 9, CHI 3 in Week 2 of 2026.
By net EPA per play over the 2020 season, Minnesota Vikings: CHI -0.033 against MIN -0.003.
